Category: draft

Welcome to my final draft board before the draft. Thank you for reading. I am working on figuring out a schedule to publish more often. I am still committed to writing here. For my fourth year writing about the WNBA draft, I am going to focus on my top ten prospects, as ten players is roughly the number of players who will contribute from a draft. Some years it is more, some less, but that forces me to make hard choices about who I believe in. I will include a few at the end who just missed, in hopes of at least mentioning the names of players who I am too low on, an inevitably in this exercise.

1. Aliyah Boston Big 6’5″ South Carolina

No change at the top of the draft. Still the best defensive prospect in years to enter the W, maybe since Sylvia Fowles. Still someone who will be very good on offense, though to be seen just how good she is. Someone who I am very ready to drive the two hours to Indianapolis multiple times this summer to see for the Fever. Not going to simply reiterate what I wrote in draft board 1.0, I stand by that.

2. Diamond Miller Wing 6’2″ Maryland

First change from my original board. Miller provides enough more efficiency than Haley Jones to give her a higher floor than Jones. While Miller has slipped from 3, her shooting numbers and willingness to take them still beat out Jones. Miller is also better at attacking the rim and has the better first step.

I would still have Miller and Jones in the same tier. Jones is more versatile as a defender and the better passer. If Jones were to figure out her shooting, her ceiling might be higher, but Miller is more likely to stick as a starter in the W.

3. Haley Jones Wing 6’1″ Stanford

Jones slips from 2 to 3 for me, due to a lack of impact outside of the paint or sometimes the elbow. While non-centers can be impactful without any kind of outside shot, it makes it much harder and unlikely. I did not think her percentages would plummet and her attempts dip even lower to basically 0 attempts per game. Particularly discouraging given that this Stanford team is not exactly overflowing with 3 point shooters outside of Hannah Jump.

While Jones does lack an elite first step, I do think her feel and handle will allow her to have success on the ball. Defensively I have far fewer questions as I think she will be able to guard 2-4 at the next level. Jackie Young would be an upper level outcome. If Jones slips out of the lottery, it would not shock me, but I feel the star potential is there. If this were tiers, I’d have Miller, Jones and Horston in the same tier.

4. Jordan Horston Wing 6’2” Tennessee

Biggest question is how real is her shooting improvement as a senior. Still not a good 3 point shooter, she really improved inside the arc as a senior. If this is just who she is, she should be third or maybe even second. She was the most baffling oversight in my first draft board. Her lack of efficiency and poor shot selection is why I would have had her 5-8 or so, but she should have been on the board. Horston who is under 40% from the field is a tough piece to fit on a W team. A Horston who is closer to 50% is much more likely to make an impact.

Big wings who can defend and make plays for other are so valuable. A team that drafts Horston, like with Haley Jones, will be hoping her shooting improves enough to keep her on the court and let the rest of her skills sing. Horston can pass, handle and defend, both on ball and off ball. Her impressive rim protection for a wing, similar to Rhyne Howard, should be very helpful at the next level.

5. Maddy Siegrist 6’1” Wing Villanova

Siegrist’s impact will be a test of how she fits in a smaller role. Her combination of size and shooting should work well. I’m not that concerned about her as a team defender, if not a stopper by any means. While she lives on a diet of midrange shots a W team won’t want her to take, her 3 point shot is good and a good chance it improves as she works on off ball movement shooting.

Questions about how often or even if she will get to the rim are what put her in the middle of the first round. Also, can she handle against W pressure and play the 3, or will she strictly be a 4 who has to add strength to hang. Either way, shooting is always valuable on the wing if the player can do just enough elsewhere to hang.

6. Grace Berger Guard 6’0” Indiana

Can she up her volume of 3s? That is the big question. For as big and athletic as she is, it is hard to see a team putting the ball in her hands, at least early in her career, as she had at Indiana. It will be much easier if she can spot up off ball, while using her strength and athleticism and decent playmaking to attack second side. This will be undermined if teams sag off her cause she shoots 1 3 per 36 minutes. No matter if she is accurate on those threes, if she turns those shots into long 2s, teams will ignore her. 

7. Zia Cooke Guard 5’9” South Carolina

Three seasons now at 35% from 3 or better and her first season as a senior with a (just barely) positive assist to turnover ratio are good indicators for Cooke. Cooke consistently played in some really clunky offensive lineups where the best offense is often for a guard to miss a shot and a big rebound the ball. Even with the constraints, she was still able to produce.

Defensively she seems fine. Not great, no one will be drafting her to be the next Briann January, but she does her job and has room to grow. Star upside seems unlikely, but at this point in this draft, a spot starter and backup guard would be a fine outcome. Plenty of draft people are higher on both Brea Beal and Laeticia Amihere than me, but Cooke is who generally showed up in the biggest games alongside of course Aliyah Boston.

8. Maïa Hirsch 6’5” big Villenueve (France)

Risky to put a player at 8 who I am not even sure is planning on coming to the W, at least anytime soon. But her potential is high and she is one of the youngest players who will get drafted. Hirsch has shades of Ezi Magbegor, but with potentially better shooting from 3. Someone who in time will be able to handle either playing the 4 or 5 and someone who can be at least a solid role player, especially on a team with a ball dominant, non-shooting player at another key position. 

9. Shaneice Swain Guard 5’9” UC Capitals (Australia)  

A potential solid backup combo guard in the W who can give you spot minutes at the 2. Shot 36% from 3 with her grenade launcher shot. She is generally solid at all the things one wants from a combo guard, even if the odds of her becoming a star, or even a starter in the W, are not that high. But given the number of players who returned to school in this draft, at this point a solid backup guard would be a fine outcome. Swain is young, so may or may not come over yet, which could be good depending on the the team that drafts her.

10. Laeticia Amihere Big 6’4” South Carolina

One of the widest range of outcomes in a player I have given a first round pick grade too, but when 4 of your initial first round picks opt to stay for a fifth year in school, swings at upside become more appealing. The good of Amihere is her defensive feel, passing, speed and size. Those are foundations for an interesting big who can give minutes at the 4 and 5. While one would not want to rely on her heavily for small ball five minutes, in appropriate doses she could be a key cog in a switch everything scheme that plays a high pressure scheme. Think Toronto Raptors with Scottie Barnes at center.

The other end of the court is the risk though. I mentioned she is a good passer for a big. However what else she does in the half court is a mystery. She can’t shoot, hasn’t typically been asked to be a screener, has not been asked with punishing smaller players in the post. Some of these things she may be decent at, but South Carolina was so big inside that they had no need for her to show off those skills. But if she can figure out how to contribute in the half court, a big if, she could be an all star level player. A big if, why she may fall deep into the second round, but I’d take the risk at this point.

Most Likely to Make Me look Silly

Stephanie Soares and Taylor Soule are my next two picks, jn some order, to round out a first round board. I have questions about Soares defense in space and offense. Taylor Soule may not be quite big enough to be a small ball 4 like she was in college and her offense would need considerable development to be play the 3. 

I’m lower on a Brea Beal and the UConn duo of Lou Lopez Senechal and Dorka Juhasz than many. Always possible a player from either of those schools makes me look silly. But Beal is so limited on offense and not as good as a point of attack defender as her reputation suggests. Senechal is a year younger than Arike Ogunbowale. Possible she is can make it, but Kitja Laksa was a better version of the same player and just made it back to the league after years out. Dorka Juhasz is decent at most center things, but doesn’t provide either enough rim protection or inside scoring against other W caliber centers. 

With a healthy number of conference games having been played, here is a snapshot of my draft board. As a reminder, I look at the top 10, as 10 is roughly how many players in any given W draft are likely to meaningfully contribute. The top 2 will not change their order on my board. The next two will almost certainly stay in the top 10, but may not stay 3 and 4. This draft will really get going once that third pick comes up with the Atlanta Dream.

1. Rhyne Howard Wing 6’2” Kentucky

    Howard has by far the highest floor of any player in this draft. A 6’2” good athlete who before this year has shot in the highs 30s from 3 is going to find a place in the W. Every team could use a player like that. Her shot has been a bit down this year, but the body of work is such I bet her percentages will come up. Not to mention she will likely not be taking as many difficult double teamed pull up 2s in the more open W game. Especially since she will likely not end up on the Indiana Fever. 

    The reason some people have NaLyssa Smith over Howard is because of questions about if Howard can ever be the primary driver of offense on a good team. I think the chances are she becomes that are lower than other #1 picks. This year’s draft is not as strong at the top as the next two. But I think she can at least be the number 2 on offense. If all goes well, a 6’2” Jewell Loyd would be quite a player to get. 

Concerns about her motor and attitude are overblown to me. Much of the time when she does not have the ball it is because Kentucky is trying to leverage the attention she gets to open opportunities for others. Howard going 1 on 3 and demanding the ball might look better, but inefficient chucking is not going to help Howard drag her over matched team to wins in a tough conference. Her steal and block rate are the highest of her career. She is defensive rebounding as well as ever. Her value off ball should be a point in her favor, not a demerit.

2. NaLyssa Smith Big 6’4” Baylor

    The very best outcome for Smith as a pro could absolutely be better than Howard. Smith has another gear athletically even compared to many players in the W. The flashes of a perimeter game are there, which could make her a matchup nightmare. A very optimistic comparison might be a taller, more explosive Napheesa Collier. However, the chance that she settles in as an energy big off the bench a la Monique Billings at the next level is why I have her second. While she shows more perimeter flashes than Billings did as a senior, they are not consistent enough to project with confidence forward. 33% from 3 is decent, but only on 1 attempt per game. 

    While it came with foul trouble risks, the fact that she was able to do a decent job guarding Ayoka Lee of Kansas State is a good sign. If Lee left this year she might be a top 5 pick in this year’s draft as a 6’6” strong low post scorer. If Smith can play at least some minutes at the 5, her speed and athleticism become even more valuable, and her lack of shooting less limiting.

3. Ashley Joens Wing 6’ Iowa State

    Joens has two key things going for her as a player at the next level. Good size, decent athleticism makes it hopeful she can play on the wing, though she does play in the post a fair amount for Iowa St. She is also a decent 3 point shooter, at mid-30s for her career, on over 7 attempts per game as a senior.

    Reasons this may end up too high for Joens are that she may struggle to finish inside the 3 point line, as she relies on being bigger and stronger than her opponents. These advantages will not be there at the next level. Then again, it is easier to see how she can move to the outside than many other undersized fours. She plays in the paint because of the roster construction at Iowa St, but she shows the ability to do the things expected of a 3 at a reasonable level. While unlikely to be a defensive stopper, she does not seem overmatched at that end either.

4. Kierstan Bell Wing 6’1” FGCU

If Bell had played more games against W level talent while at FGCU she could be third on this list without a doubt. Players with her combination of size and skill are the most valuable type of player in the pros. She does everything, with good rebounding, block, steal, scoring and assist rates. High turnover rate, but paradoxically that can be good if the player is otherwise effective as it can be cleaned up. Best case scenario might be Myisha Hines-Allen with better defense.

The major question surrounding scouting Bell is the weakness of her opposition. If she was consistently facing W size and length, how far would her excellent 2 point shooting drop from 65%, as she is shooting now? Her willingness to shoot from 3 is a positive, though it would be nice if a few more of them went in as she is under 30% on the year and low 30s for her college career.

Unfortunately for Bell and anyone hoping to watch her play against better competition, she hurt her knee and is out for a while, if not the whole rest of the year. Hopefully she is able to return for the NCAA tournament, her team makes it, and she gets a good matchup. Bell is the player on this list I have seen the least in the types of matchups I like, against other players who at least have a chance to play professionally, if not in the W.

5. Shakira Austin Big 6’5” Ole Miss

    Austin looks the part of an excellent defensive prospect at either front court position. She has a good steal and block rate and she moves her feet well when switched onto guards. Her Ole Miss team thrives on defense with her as the anchor. During last year’s draft I overestimated the importance of such defensive ability to W teams with Natasha Mack, so it is possible I am doing the same this year.

    The difference between Mack and Austin is that it is easier to see how Austin can contribute on the offensive end. She can handle and face up in a way that Mack was not comfortable doing. Austin’s shooting numbers are not great, but her shot looks decent and may improve with time. For all her Ole Miss team helps her look good defensively, they struggle on offense and so Austin is often playing with zero spacing around her. Frankly, an only somewhat negative assist to turnover ratio in this case is impressive.

6. Rae Burrell Wing 6’ Tennessee

    What is Burrell’s actual shooting ability? That is the big open question in regards to her prospects in the W. If she is closer to who she was as a junior, who shot 40% from 3 and 82% from the line, she deserves to be considered for a top 10 pick. If she is more like she was before that, 30% from 3 and 60% from the free throw line, she does not. Injuries have hampered her senior year and so far she is splitting the difference between those two shooting levels, shooting well from 3, 38%, but poorly from the free throw line 66%. 

Defensively Burrell is merely solid, not exceptional. She is not going to stick because she is hounding the opponent’s best perimeter player. A negative assist to turnover ratio is also not great, though not the killer it would be  for a guard. She is a player who is capable in every area, but if she turns out not to be a shooter, she very well may slide out of the top 10. She does benefit from the relative positional scarcity at wing vs. other positions.

7. Destanni Henderson Guard 5’7” South Carolina

If I had finished writing this a month ago as I intended to, I would not have had Henderson in my top 10. My major concern with her is how effective she will be offensively at the next level. Dana Evans was much craftier at finishing in the paint and she really struggled in her rookie year getting anything to go in inside the arc. A solid floater would be a great addition for her.

    However, Henderson excels in so many other areas that she is at least a good candidate to be a backup point guard at the next level. Think of her as a lower ceiling pick than some I have after her, but more of a sure thing. She is a good passer, an excellent point guard defender, and a good 3 point shooter. Her speed will also serve her well as her W team will almost certainly have better spacing than her South Carolina teams.

8. Jade Melbourne Guard 5’9” UC Capitals (Australia) 

    Last year, a young Australian guard was taken with the 8th pick in the draft and it did not go well during the season. However, the Shyla Heal experience is unlikely to repeat with Melbourne. The most notable difference is that Heal is a point guard, whereas Melbourne has spent her entire career as an off guard. The transition to the W is rough for any position, but is especially tough for point guards. And hopefully Melbourne will not be drafted by a team expecting her to immediately run the second unit.

Melbourne ideally will be who Chelsea Dungee was supposed to be when the Wings drafted her at 5. A good scoring off guard with athleticism. Especially promising for Melbourne is that her three point shot is starting to come around this year in the WNBL, as she pairs with Brittney Sykes. At only 20, Melbourne will be a bit of a longer term project. A good option for a team that is already good, but wants to keep one eye on the future like the Minnesota Lynx or Seattle Storm.

9. Christyn Williams Guard 5’11” UConn

Williams has had a tough senior year, including covid issues. She is back playing, a hopefully good sign. But the athleticism and talent is undeniable and might get her drafted in the first round regardless of how she plays. A strong, powerful guard, she has shot over 50% from 2 for her career, an impressive feat for a (generously listed) 5’11” 2 guard. 

    Williams is an interesting case of being pretty good at the ancillary skills that separate prospects. Decent three point shooter, but not particularly good. Positive assist to turnover ratio, but barely. In her favor, she is not like Evina Westbrook, who tends to dominate the lesser competition UConn plays in conference and but not show up to the same degree against tougher opponents. 

    By the end of the first round, a bet on pedigree might be worth it. And while this is*not* a mock draft, another UConn player to Seattle would be fitting. 

10. Nia Clouden Guard 5’8” Michigan St.

How real is a jump in shooting that happens in a player’s senior year? That is an important question for Clouden. She is shooting 41% as a senior from 3, after shooting 27% her sophomore year and 32 last year. The rise in free throw shooting is a good sign, as those going up in tandem can reflect real improvement. Clouden is a shifty and fast scoring guard. While she may not be the perfect lead guard, she has the size and athleticism to play off ball in the right matchups, so does offer some versatility off the bench.

Quick Notes on players who could be in the top 10 by my next update in no particular order:

Nyara Sabally: Just based on talent and production when healthy, Sabally would likely be the second big on this list for me after NaLyssa Smith. Unfortunately, she has dealt with knee injuries and has only recently been playing this year. If teams are confident in her health she could absolutely be a first round talent.

Veronica Burton: Superficially Burton looks good, with an ok three point shot, good assist numbers, and one of the best defenders in college. I still have questions about what she will do on offense at the next level, but she is #1 in players I need to watch more of this year.

Elissa Cunane: It’s possible I am missing on Cunane because I have seen her struggle in high profile matchups where it is unfair to expect her to dominate. I definitely think she has W potential, I’m just not sure she has the upside I’d hope for in a top 10 pick.  

Naz Hillmon: A’ja Wilson/ Ben Simmons-like with the early 3 point attempts and then not attempting them again. Alas, unlike Wilson or Simmons, Hillmon is not especially long nor effective defensively for her position. Hillmon is a good college player. I do not see it at the next level.

With international basketball in full swing and college basketball starting, here some players to watch as we get ready for the 2022 WNBA draft. The W has not announced when the draft lottery will be, but you can play the lottery yourself at Across the Timeline to see how it might shake out.

In preparation for the 2022 draft, here are ten players I am going to be watching this year who have, I believe, a chance at being first round picks. This is not my current top 10 for the 2022 draft, though I am still writing about only ten. A couple of these players are admittedly long shots. But all are worth watching and trying to envision how they might play at the professional level. Players are not in any particular order, though Rhyne Howard and NaLyssa Smith would be 1 and 2 on my draft board.

1. Rhyne Howard – wing – 6’2” – Kentucky

While last season’s discussions of the WNBA’s rules on eligibility focused on Caitlin Clark and Paige Bueckers, it was Howard who was the most pro ready player who was not eligible to play in the W this past season. There is nothing left for Howard to do in college to show that she is a potential top pick. She has excellent size for her position, is a good shooter, and is on a team that is likely not going to do that much in a competitive SEC. She is not the athlete that NaLyssa Smith is, cause very very few are, but Howard has the highest floor of any player in this class. A big wing who shoots high 30s from 3 on a difficult shot diet, who can pass and defend will always have a place in the W. Phoenix certainly could have used her after Kia Nurse got injured. Possibly even before, even at age 21. 

2. NaLyssa Smith – Big – 6’4” – Baylor

    As I said, Rhyne Howard has the higher floor, given her shooting. But NaLyssa Smith has the talent to be the #1 pick. Smith will be able to be effective in the W with her athleticism and high motor. The big question that will determine if she ought to be the #1 overall pick is just how skilled she is. Can she function as a wing on offense, like Satou Sabally, or is she closer to a more athletic Monique Billings? While playing for Kim Mulkey, she was not asked nor expected to shoot lots of 3s or make plays off the dribble, but there is a good chance she shows this year under Nicki Collin that she in fact can play on the outside. If so, the debate over who should be the #1 pick will be fun all season. While she only shot 20% from 3 her junior season, she shot almost 80% from the line and had a good looking shooting stroke from long 2. A negative assist to turnover ratio is not great, but then again, playing without any spacing at Baylor did not help. Baylor is one of my least favorite schools for their homophobia and other issues, but Smith will be worth watching.

3. Jade Melbourne – guard – 5’8″ – UC Capitals (WNBL in Australia)

    The Shyla Heal draft experience may not have worked out great, but Melbourne is a different player. She is a good athlete who was one of the few international players at the U19 tournament this past summer who could hang with the US. Like many athletic guards and wings, her major swing skill will be her shooting. As of now, it seems unlikely she can be a primary on ball creator, so will need to be able to do something off ball in the W, hence the need for her to shoot. As an 18 year old in the WNBL she was impressive, willing to challenge even Liz Cambage in the paint. WNBL games are quite fun and I will be tuning into Melbourne’s games at least.

4. Ashley Joens wing- 6’1″- Iowa St

A smart, strong player who is similar to Rhyne Howard, just not quite as big or athletic, nor as good a 3 point shooter. If she can get her 3 point shot up closer to 40%, could be a candidate as a lottery pick. Her negative assist/turnover ratio limits is something to watch as well.  Even with that though, she is a good player at a position where it is hard to find contributors.  Hope is she can be a more athletic Megan Walker or Bridget Carleton with more off the dribble juice.

5. Shakira Austin – big – 6’5″ – Ole Miss

The US player I have watched the least on this list, especially against high level talent, but worth keeping an eye on. Good athlete, prototypical size for a big. Given how many wings ans guards went in the first round of the 2021 draft compared to centers, seems like centers who are not likely to be superstars are less valuable in the today’s game, which is worth keeping in mind. Austin would have to show a leap in on ball shot creation to justify a lottery pick, but could definitely still go in the top 10.

6. Elissa Cunane – big – 6’5″ – NC State

Good offensive center who can stretch the floor. Low block and steal rates a bit concerning, though she is a decent positional defender. Will be important to try to see how she defends in space. Always challenging with college centers as they often just hang out in the paint and be big, but important. Her passing is more acceptable than good, which hurts in comparison to Stefanie Dolson, for instance.

7. Sika Kone – big – 6’3″ Spar Gran Canaria

    Sika Kone impressed at the FIBA U19 tournament this past summer. She would be the most surprising player to make the first round on this list. But I think she has a chance. An energetic big out of Mali who plays in Spain for Gran Canaria, she was one of the best players at the u19 tournament this past summer. Unfortunately, she did not end up playing the US, as seeing her against the US bigs like Lauren Betts, but Kone still impressed. Might be a bit of a tweener at only 6’3”, but with her size and motor, could play some center potentially. Very few players develop like Natasha Howard, but that would be the model.

8. Naz Hillmon – big – 6’2″ – Michigan

The bar for a non-center who does not shoots 3s to be effective in the W is so high that at this point I think she would be outside of my top 10. Definitely a player it would be great to have her wingspan on to see if she could play as an undersized center, but averaging only .5 blocks per game as a junior, and that being a high for her time in college, is not a great sign. She is a very good scorer inside and rebounder, but Stephanie Mavunga was also a killer in the B1G, but did not make the same impact in the W. Has shown that she might be expanding her game to the 3 point line.

9. Rae Burrell – wing – 6’1″ – Tennessee   

    How real is her 3 point shot improvement? From 20% her first year, 32% as a sophomore, to 40% as a junior. Because if that is real, she has a good shot at contributing in the W as a wing with size who can also handle. More of a jack of all trades than exceptionally good at any one thing. If the shooting is real, could be a 3 and D+ player, with some handling and passing. Not an amazing athlete, but seems good enough. Worth watching if she matches up with some of the better athletes at her position. The Stanford matchup will be a fun early test against a likely  top 2 pick in the 2023 draft in Haley Jones. 

10. Christyn Williams – guard – 5’11” – Uconn

One lesson from the 2021 draft was how teams valued athleticism at least as much as skill. It worked with Michaela Onyenwere, though not so well with Stephanie Watts. While Williams does have skill and she produces, drafting her in the top 5 would be largely because of her combination of size and strength at guard. Williams does have skill, to be clear as a decent 3 point shooter at 35% for her career and a solid, if not spectacular, passer with a positive assist to turnover ratio. But her athleticism and strength is what separates her from some other guards in this class. 69% from the free throw line is concerning, but hopefully a blip and she can get it up closer to 80%. 

As before, for my draft board I focus on ten players I feel have the best chance of making a substantial contribution to the WNBA. Why 10? From 2007-2017, that is the average number of players from those draft classes who played at least 15 minutes per game for 3 seasons. For a team with a top 10 first round draft pick, it is a reasonable hope that they will reach that bar. 

This is a ranking of how good these players will be roughly in their age 25 season. This is particularly worth noting when comparing someone like Shyla Heal, who will not be 23 until 2024, and Aari McDonald, who will be 23 this year. 

I will use what I think the players’ most likely best outcome to put the players in tiers. My draft philosophy is that teams should draft first for talent, but if a team tiers a draft and there are similar options available, then taking fit into account makes sense. This is not a mock draft so team needs have no bearing on my order.

First Team All WNBA potential

1. Awak Kuier F/C  6’4”  Virtus Eirene Raguse 

Since putting the Finnish Kuier as my #1 overall prospect in January, Kuier showed at the qualifications for Eurobasket why I, and to be clear lots of others for longer than me, have been high on her. Kuier has all the attributes necessary to potentially be a top 5 player in the WNBA. While that is not the most likely outcome, it is a testament to just how skilled she is. She can provide rim protection like a center, but has the foot speed to defend on the perimeter. She can shoot 3s and is a good passer for a young big. A bit wild shooting off the dribble, but shows flashes of potential there as well.

Her main issue right now is lack of strength and youth. While her playing so well at 19 is a great sign for the future, it does mean that she is less likely to step in right away and contribute than her peers who are anywhere from 3 to 4 years older. Her lack of strength will likely lead to foul trouble as will her youth. It also means that she will likely mostly play the 4. Eventually she should be able to at least play high leverage minutes at the 5 and provide a match up nightmare, but that will be unlikely as a rookie.

Defensive Player of the Year potential

2. Natasha Mack 6’4″ Oklahoma State

Another player who played well to end the year and solidify her place in the top of the draft. Much was made of Mack’s shot blocking at over 4 a game. But if anything, her steal rate at 2 steals per game was even more impressive. Blocks are not a great measure of defensive ability, but her stock rate, steals + blocks, is outrageous. Here is her compared to Collier and the college numbers for a few other bigs in the W.

Offensively it will be an adjustment for her to have to shift from someone who can take as many shots as they want to someone who will be relied on to set solid screens and dive to the rim. But her speed and decent passing ability will be an asset as a roll player in the pick and roll. Think a better more explosive Elizabeth Williams as a possible outcome.

Starter on playoff team potential:

3. Arella Guirantes G/F 5’11 Rutgers

Guirantes will benefit from being the second or third creator on a team. It is possible her strength and savvy will allow her to be a primary scoring option at the next level, but she will no longer have the same edge in strength she did against younger college opponents. She lacks the burst to really puncture defenses. Her pull up game is good, but she relied on it heavily in part because she struggled to make it all the way to the rim.

While not a primary wing scoring option, she has all the tools to be a 3 and d plus wing, someone who can knock down open 3s, run a functional pick and roll, and defend other wings. As a secondary creator who can guard tough opponents, she can be really good.

Solid regular season starter potential

4. Dana Evans G 5’6” Louisville

A cold shooting stretch towards the end of the season brought Evans’ 3 point percentage down to 35% from the high 30s it had been. While a mild concern, her track record the prior two years, where she was at 39% and 43% is why I am optimistic about her shooting. She will also likely not be asked to take such difficult attempt as the main offensive threat in the W, which should help her shooting numbers. Her ability to get into the paint is also valuable and should translate to the W.

Evans is merely a good athlete, not a great one, so her shot does need to be good to have success. She competes defensively but is a bit on the small side, so another way in which her presence as a starter in the W will be dependent on her being able to score. 

5. Charli Collier C 6’5” Texas

Every write up of Charli Collier after the NCAA tournament but before the upcoming draft has followed the same pattern. Acknowledged that Collier struggled when facing WNBA level talent in the front court, but pointing to how well she played when she was significantly bigger than her opponents. Now in Collier’s favor it was clear that while Vic Schaefer may have designed an offense effective enough to pull off a couple of upsets in the tournament, it was not designed to highlight Collier’s offensive game. 

On the flip side though, nothing I saw fully assuaged the concerns about her ability to be good enough on offense when facing WNBA level centers to make up for her defensive struggles, particularly defending in space. To recycle a line I used in this piece comparing Mack and Collier, using a #1 draft pick on a player with the distinct feel of Alaina Coates but who can occasionally hit a 3 and never ever passes, is a risky move. 

Solid backup/ spot starter potential

6. Aari McDonald G 5’6” Arizona

Based on McDonald’s NCAA tournament performance, she looks like a top 3 pick in this draft. Someone who could start on a team competing deep into the playoffs. Shooting over 40% from 3 on a difficult diet of step back 3s, she could then use her explosiveness to get anywhere she wanted. However, WNBA teams ought to be wary of relying on how a player plays in a handful of games in March versus the entirety of their body of work. 

McDonald is not a 40+% shooter from 3. She is likely somewhere between the 34% from 3 shooter she ended the year and the 27% she shot her junior year. Her upside, if she can actually get her shot to go in enough to force teams to guard her at the 3 point line in the more wide open WNBA is so tantalizing a 6th pick is worth it. But downside risk exists that she tops out at a change of pace backup guard who can not score enough in the half court to be more. Her relative lack of touch on floaters and midrange shots is almost as concerning as her 3 point shooting. And at 5’6” her defense has utility, but she isn’t guarding 3 positions in the W.

7. Renna Davis F 6’2” Tennessee

While Davis and McDonald are completely different players, they share the fact that their WNBA ceilings will be dictated by their 3 point shooting. Davis is tall and long enough to potentially play some small ball 5. She also has quick feet and can hold her own guarding quicker guards. She may not be big enough to battle the Liz Cambage, but will be able to guard almost any other player.

But her lack of shooting will make it hard to play her in a playoff setting. She does not yet have the ball handling or passing to make up for a lack of shooting the way Alyssa Thomas does.

8. Shyla Heal G 5’6” Townsend Fire

Of the players in this draft, Kuier has faced the highest level of competition, going against Natasha Howard in a recent game. After her, the Australian Heal is probably next. For anyone curious in watching her play, her games with the Townsend Fire are available on the FIBA youtube channel and quite fun. Heal is a decent athlete who is a good passe and a confident shooter. She shot in the low 30s from 3, but I am confident that with time and better shot selection as she gains experience more of her shots will go in.

While comparing her to her fellow Aussie Leilani Mitchell is maybe too easy, it is also fairly accurate. If Heal can develop her shooting like Mitchell, she could be a starter in the W.

9. Jasmine Walker F 6’2” Alabama

Walker’s WNBA future rests on two things. She is 6’’2” and shot 40% from 3 on 7 attempts from game even though the opponent knew she was going to shoot every time she got the ball. Bridget Carleton type contributor would be the best case, a low usage wing who can slot in and play off of more ball dominant players. Will need to focus on her defense, as she may struggle to defend quicker wings and guards.

10. Kysre Gondrezick G 5’9” West Virginia

Gondrezick is the player I am most out on a limb on. Other people have her going in the third round. But solid shooting guards with well rounded games can be tough to find. She is the only one really available in this year’s draft. She is unlikely to be an Arike Ogunbowale ball dominant guard, but she can hit open shots and is a decent defender. Not exceptional in any one part of the game, but is solid in every area.

Quick thoughts on a few other players who have a shot at the top 10:

Michaela Onyenwere: The one player who was on my draft board in January but is now not. This is not because of how she played since then. It is more based on my growing more concerned about the limitations I mentioned at the time. She ended the season at 33% from 3, which is ok, but she still has work to do to show she can play the 3 full time at the next level.

Chelsea Dungee: A very effective college player at drawing fouls and shot well from 3, but I’m not convinced that she can do enough to make it. Nearly twice as many turnovers per game as assists, in a system at Arkansas designed for guards to put up gaudy numbers, is not good. 

Kiana Williams: Really struggles to get in the paint and while she competes hard on defense, is slight and will struggle against bigger guards and wings. In particular on offense, if her step back is not going in, she does not really have another move. And unlike other players on teams with no shooting, Stanford played with good spacing and so the paint was open, she just could not get there.

On Wednesday, Charli Collier and Natasha Mack, two probable first round picks in the upcoming WNBA draft, should both declare, faced off. In my draft board for the 2021 draft, I put Mack above Collier, with Mack 2 and Collier 3. I am an outlier in this, with a more typical board looking like this one from Ben Dull of Winsidr, who has Collier 2 and Mack 10. The main reason I am higher on Mack than Collier is the defensive potential of Mack, coupled with concerns about Collier’s defense.

One way of looking at a player’s defensive potential for the next level is looking at their steal and block rates. While in the WNBA, block rate is not a particularly good measure of defense, it is a useful indicator at the college level of a player’s athleticism, necessary for success at the next level.

Steals are a valuable indicator, particularly for players who gets them without gambling unnecessarily. Combined in the stocks column, they give a good indication of a player’s potential on defense. Here are Mack and Collier’s numbers, with some current WNBA centers’ senior season stats included for comparison.

I included a cross section of WNBA centers, of varying levels. Sanders, Howard, and Jonquel Jones have all shown themselves good enough to play center on championship level defenses. Bri Jones played well in 2020, though long term is likely a good backup center, and Coates, the 2nd pick in the 2017 draft, will be lucky to be in the league this upcoming season.

Mack has the highest stocks combination, with an absurd 6. Collier has the lowest at 1.6, by a decent margin. For all of Collier’s gifts as an offensive player to matter, she needs to be able to stay on the floor on the defensive end. 

Mack does not just block shots by dint of being really tall, a la Brittney Griner. Mack is not particularly tall for a center at 6’4” and quite a few of her blocks are on opposing players shooting jump shots, and flying in as a help defender.

This play against Texas is a good example of Mack’s athleticism and ability to help as a defender. This is common for Oklahoma State, where they have Mack guard both forwards, trusting her to be able to guard both with her speed and instincts.

Mack’s defensive technique needs refinement, but it is impressive how effective she is now. A WNBA team may need to demonstrate some patience with her, but she has the potential to be a defensive player of the year caliber defender in time. 

In contrast, the downside risk with Collier is that she simply will not be able to hang in the WNBA defensively, much less become a positive presence as one would expect from a top 2 pick. Collier has a lot of work to do to not share the fate of Alaina Coates and Teaira McCowan, two other high draft picks who have had their WNBA careers stalled because of their defensive limitations.

Collier’s relatively few blocks tend to come when an opposing player drives directly at her. Collier struggles when guarding on the perimeter, or in defending screens. This play shows the struggles Collier has guarding on the perimeter. Taylen Collins beats Collier off the dribble, and while Collins has a bright future, she is a freshman still figuring out college basketball.

Young bigs who make it to the WNBA typically struggle on defense, and even the best take time to learn the game. In particular, defending in space on the pick and roll is something that is among the biggest changes from college to the pros. A WNBA big has far more responsibilities in defending in the pick and roll, and far less opportunity to post up, than they do in college. 

The demands that bigs be able to guard in space increase each year as well, as more teams play with 4 or even 5 shooters at a time, with guards who are comfortable shooting off the dribble. The lack of spacing in a WNBA game from 2015 is jarring with the lack of spacing. It’s important for WNBA teams to consider what a center in 2025 might be expected to be able to do to stay on the court.

Charli Collier is a talented, hard working player, but a WNBA team that drafts her needs to be confident they are not getting an Alaina Coates who can occasionally shoot 3s. Even in a weak draft, there are other choices.  Natasha Mack has been able to put up incredible numbers, even without much high level experience. With continued coaching, and her own drive to succeed, Mack’s ceiling is sky high.