wnba – Five Out Basketball

2026 WNBA Draft Board

Here is my 2026 draft board. This class feels like it has a lot of solid role player types, but only one player with super star upside. Still, the players all the way down to 6 have high floors, so at least the chances of these players washing out of the league are low. This isn’t the 2021 draft.

I have been doing 10 players as my draft board for a few years, as that is roughly how many typically meaningfully contribute in a given draft year when there were 12 teams. With 15 teams, I’m going to 11 this year. Meaningfully contribute is a judgement call, but it is helpful to anchor to something to remind oneself that though 45 names will be called, it is very hard to stick and play minutes in the W. For me, meaningfully contribute is defined as play 15 minutes per game for 3 seasons. It will take a few years after expansion has slowed to get a sense of where the new number is, but 11 will do for this year.

Awa Fam 6’5″ Spain

Comfortably the best prospect in this draft. She can pass, defend, score in the post, the shooting is coming along and looks like it will be good. Being younger and good is a benefit when drafting, not a negative. No W team is in position to pass up on elite talent, no matter how good they are. This is not a mock draft, but I would be surprised, and question their judgement, if the Wings don’t select Fam. She can do everything one wants from a high level big in the W and will immediately be able to contribute this season. She can be a good role playing big right away and grow into her talent. This isn’t a young player who will explode in year 3 and struggle at first.

Against the US a few weeks ago, she credibly guarded Chelsea Gray, Rhyne Howard, Dearica Hamby, and Angel Reese. She was playing next to a big in Megan Gustafson who isn’t a noted defender and at age 20 her coach trusted her to take the harder assignments so they could go two bigs against the US. How many 20 year olds from the past few years could do that besides her and Sarah Strong?

Olivia Miles 5’10 TCU

Olivia Miles has the size, passing and shooting to drive very good offense at the W level. How real the shooting is, especially off the dribble, will dictate how high her ceiling is, but even if the shooting tails off a bit she has enough going on to be a starter in the W. Her passing is elite and she has grown as a scorer enough to make the passing valuable. Her defense is an issue, but there’s no reason it can’t improve to at least Sabrina Ionescu levels and she’s potentially good enough to justify surrounding her with good defenders. She doesn’t have to be good defensively, just not terrible.

Lauren Betts 6’7″ UCLA

She’s not a higher pick because I don’t think she’s going to be able to consistently draw double teams in the post against other centers when she doesn’t have the same size/strength advantage as she did in college. But she will absolutely punish teams that play smaller bigs against her and any switches will be toast. But what put her third, compared to 5th or 6 i had her in November, is what she showed on defense this year. Betts’ ability to switch and hold up was a key factor in UCLA’s smothering defesne. No 6’7″ big is perfect 25 feet from the rim, but Betts was more than good enough to bog down opposing offenses. Her W team is not going to ask her to guard Kelsey Mitchell 30 feet from the basket regularly, but this is the rare 6’7” big who likely won’t be played off the floor by the Kelsey Mitchell Types. She should be able to hedge, switch in emergencies, and be more active even in drop coverages than most 6’7”+ bigs.

Azzi Fudd 5’11” UConn

It is entirely possible that in the more spaced out W game, Fudd will be able to get the basket more readily and be a playmaker for others. But after being my number 2 pick for most of the season, her struggles to do anything when guarded by other W level defenders like Raven Johnson knocked her down a couple of spots. Her floor is as high as Miles and Betts, as a player who can defend and shoot like Fudd will always have value, but I don’t see the same upside as the two in front of her. She basically never got fouled, rarely got to the rim and just does not seem to have the wiggle or burst to be a lead guard.

Iyana Martin 5’9″ Spain

Martin’s upside is higher for me than Fudd’s, given the passes she can throw and her ability to get to the rim, but her downside risk is enough higher than Fudd’s I can’t put Martin above Fudd. But I thought about it. Big question will be can Martin score enough at the rim and/or from floater range for her passing and paint touches to matter. She seems to be able to shoot, though does not shoot much at this point. Martin at 20 should be able to help as a backup point guard right away, though it will take a couple of years for her to be a starter. A longer lead time than many teams want for a lottery pick, but for me the upside is there. She competes hard defensively, but is better on ball than off. Not going to be a lock down defender, but in time should be able to iron out enough of the kinks off ball to be solid there.

Kiki Rice 5’11” UCLA

Rice was a consummate role player in college who should be able to step into a similar role in the pros. A bit undersized to guard all wing players, but should be able to guard most 1-3 players while hitting open spot up 3s. Possible, if not especially likely that she can add to her off the dribble game and be better than a super role player, another reason to draft her here. Likely to be decent in the W, with a chance to be more than that.

Flau’jea Johnson 5’10” LSU

Among the most up and down prospects in this first round. Which Johnson you get from night to night can make her look like a top 3 pick in this draft or more like the 15th pick. The shooting and defense seem real enough, I would not go lower than this point, but anytime she puts it on the deck it is such an adventure. Could she iron out her issues while dribbling and be an All-Star? Sure! But unfortunately she might not get her feel to where she can be more than a strictly 3 and D player. She, like both players before and after her, get the bump that wings get because W teams can always use more competent wings to soak up minutes.

Gabriella Jaquez 5’11” UCLA

Jaquez had a strong finish to her senior season. She can shoot, rebounds well for her size, and is a good, if not great, defender. Very unlikely to ever have offense run through her, but for teams wanting competent help on the wing, she would be a good fit. She has an even assist to turnover ratio and did not create her own offense at UCLA, so she is going to need to be paired with guards who can create shots for her.

Ta’Niya Latson 5’8″ University of South Carolina

Can she score better in the paint and just outside it in the pros vs college? Seems counterintuitive given the bigs are bigger and better in the W, but the spacing is also better in the pros. Latson will have to learn to score more efficiently, to take advantage of her elite athleticism. Her improvements defensively will give her time to figure this out, as she successfully used her year at South Carolina to improve on that end. She’s far from hopeless as a 3 point shooter, but will also need to see her spot up shooting tick up, as it is unlikely she is drafted somewhere that will hand the offense to her.

Janiah Barker 6’4″ Tennessee

Based on production, Barker would not be on this draft board. But based on size, skill and athleticism, she could be a top 3 pick in this draft. Without being able to interview her or do background checking I have no idea why she struggled to put her talent into production in UCLA in 24-25 or even more so this past season with Tennessee, but at this point in the draft, her talent might be worth the gamble.

Nell Angloma 5’11 France

She could be shorter Kaleah Copper, but that’s a high bar to reach. Angloma is an athletic wing who attacks the rim hard and is a good finisher there. Her shot isn’t broken, but it needs to improve for her to stick in the W. Her feel for the game is not great, she rarely passes and likes to post smaller guards, something common in Eurocup, but much less common in the W. At only 20 though, she was receiving real minutes, and having offense run for her, for a competitive professional team in France. That is a good sign and one that would have me seriously considering drafting her late in the first round.

Top 10 WNBA Free Agents for 2025

As free agents begin to decide where they are going, here is my list of the 15 best free agents. Obviously intended to have this out last week, but life intervened as it does sometimes.

I am including those who have already signed because still worth discussing their relative position in the league. I am judging these players on their ability to help teams win deep into the playoffs in the 2025 season. So a rebuilding team with a good to great 22 year old, for instance the situation the Wings hope to be in, would have a different order.

Adding Golden State to the mix increases the amount of money available. Expect every one of these players to sign for one year as the entire league prepares for a new CBA in 2026. I am not including Elena Delle Donne because so far as I know she has made no noises about returning..

Breanna Stewart

The least likely player on this list to change teams, Stewart may not be as good as she was a couple of years ago, with 2024 seeing her lowest true shooting % of her career, but she can still clearly be the best player on a championship team. Stewart’s skills should age gracefully and allow her to share the load with other superstars. Jonquel Jones and Sabrina Ionescu benefited immensely from Stewart being just as, if not more, effective off ball as she is with the ball in her hands.

Kelsey Plum

How valuable is a player who can drive top offense by themselves, if they are only a competent defender? I think very valuable. A singular offensive talent is more valuable on the margins than a singular defensive one. Just like one bad defender is less damaging than one offensive player a team can ignore.

You put Kelsey Plum on any team in the WNBA and she is going to drive your offense to higher heights. She has experience playing off ball, as she has with the Aces, but I believe could take over a higher usage role, especially in the playoffs, if a team needed her to.

Satou Sabally

This is admittedly high for Sabally. This is a bet that she continues to develop and that her injury issues are mostly bad luck and a team can hope for a healthy season in 2025. But Satou is this good when clicking on all cylinders. A 6’4” wing who can play 3-5 depending on who is around her, Sabally is a force. I’m not ready to say she can be your best player and win a championship, but her skillset fits next to any other star, especially if her 3 point shooting continues to be good.

Emma Meesseman

Will Meesseman play again in the W? All basketball fans hope, but we shall see. Meesseman is a wonderful offensive player, even if I do wish her game was 10% more analytically friendly. Her midrange is so useful when an offense stalls or at the end of the shot clock, but the number of awkward midrange 2s early in the clock, shots that could have been 3s quite often, is not ideal. However, Meesseman would help any team in the W with her all around game.

Defensively she can hold her own, but she is not going to cover for the mistakes and limitations of teammates. Putting her on a team with strong defenders would be best.. Hope she comes over soon, as there are only so many seasons left of her at her best.

Alyssa Thomas

If this ranking were what player is best equipped to get your team through one round in the playoffs, Thomas would be second on the list. A regular season force who overwhelms lesser playoff opponents, AT is a one of a kind player. But the further one gets in the playoffs, the more her limitations put a ceiling on a team. She is a tricky player to put other top players around, since one would ideally have all 4 other players on the court able to shoot 3s and a center who can protect the rim.

While AT seems to be a consummate professional and is always in shape, she also has the kind of game that may be susceptible to falling off quicker than expected as she enters her age 32 season. Typically players who age well have 2 of three things going for them, passing, shooting, and height. AT has the passing and that will asbsolutely help her age more gracefully on the court,, but she does not shoot and she is undersized for her position.

Kelsey Mitchell

While Aliyah Boston rounded into form over the 2024 season, we have yet to see Mitchell play with a top 5 front court player in her career. I think she would do very well as a prime offensive driver if paired with any of the front court players consistently on all-wnba teams. The defense will never be great, but she can be passable on that end.

Who can the Fever put at the 3 and the 4 to give this team enough defense to compete deep in the playoffs? That is the big next question for the Fever. Clark and Mitchell could win a title with a #1 offense and an acceptable defense, but the solution at the 3 and 4 is not on the current roster. Leonie Fiebich will not be available to offer a massive contract for a while, but someone like her would be perfect.

Nneka Ogwumike

Ogwumike is a super role player at this point, but a very valuable one. She needs someone else to be the driving force on offense. She is not going to generate efficient offense for other folks as even really a secondary creator. As long as there is enough shooting and creation around her, Ogwumike knows where to be and her all around skillset will help any team. An offense with her, as we saw with Seattle, can get clunky with her on the court as teams don’t fear her shooting even though she does hit the odd three.

Brittney Griner

Griner could have a throwback season and be a lot closer to three on this list, but this is where she is based on last couple of seasons of play. Still an effective offensive player, her defense has slipped a bit. Without her driving a top offense all her own, she can be a tricky fit on the court. Though with presumably pristine spacing Karl Smesko will work to get her in Atlanta, it will be very interesting to see how she plays in a different offense. Nate Tibbets wasn’t exactly running last years Dream offense though, and Griner was somewhere between ok and good.

Brionna Jones

Like her former teammate Alyssa Thomas, Jones is a very good regular season player, but whose weaknesses come to the fore in the playoffs. She has improved her defense in space impressively since she joined the league, especially with her quick hands, but there are limits to how much she can hang. She was played off the court last season against the Lynx and teams are only going to follow the spaced out model both the Lynx and Liberty showed more. Still well worth signing for a team wanting to make the semifinals, but a real ceiling on how much she helps a team on the way to a title.

DeWanna Bonner

How long can Bonner keep this up? Bonner will turn 38 during this season and will presumably drop off at some point. But her height and shooting, if at times underwhelming from 3, may continue to allow her to be effective another year or two. Best as a 4 or even a 5 at this point, even given the amount of strength she is giving up in those matchups, Bonner could still be a very good fit on a number of teams. Relying on her to generate offense in the playoffs is too much, but she can do a lot of things fairly well even this long into her career.

WNBA Season Preview Part 1: Chicago, Atlanta, Connecticut and Dallas

The 2023 WNBA season is almost upon us. While the Aces and Liberty as the top 2 teams seems pretty set, the rest of the league is open to an unusual degree. I am going to be previewing the season with three articles, four teams per article. I am listing who I think should be the top 8 players and then addressing the major questions I have about each team to watch for as we head into the season.

Atlanta Dream

Starters:

Cheyenne Parker C

Nia Coffey PF

Rhyne Howard SF

Allisha Gray SG

Aari McDonald PG

Bench:

Monique Billings Big

Haley Jones Wing

Danielle Robinson Guard

Outlook

How does Tanisha Wright gets enough shooting on the court with this team? The Dream will get shooting from Howard, Gray and hopefully McDonald. But none of the other players on the team who are likely to play are likely to provide much spacing if at all. Coffey could provide spacing, if she bounces back from her icy shooting last season to the prior years. Both Haley Jones and Laeticia Amihere were good draft picks, but neither, at least this season, will be guarded from three. Parker can step out to 3 some, but if she is at center, using her to space the floor is not a good use of her skill set. Savvier teams will also likely still sag off her and see if she is willing to get her 3 volume up.

Trade acquisition Danielle Robinson can’t shoot from 3 and needs the ball in her hands to be effective. This is why I would not start her. Doing so requires Atlanta to run the offense through her and move both Howard and Gray off ball. Hopefully for the Dream, AD Durr can provide bench and Iliana Rupert comes over and plays decent backup minutes. Otherwise, the offense is unlikely to get the Dream beyond the first round of the playoffs. Something for Dan Padover to look into is how to add shooting that meshes with Howard and Gray in future seasons.

Chicago:

Starters:

Elizabeth Williams C

Isabelle Harrison PF

Kaleah Copper SF

Marina Mabrey SG

Dana Evans PG

Bench

Alanna Smith Big

Rebekah Gardner Wing

Courtney Williams Guard

Outlook

Why is this team trying to win the sixth seed and how does James Wade manage the bigs are the biggest question for me with this team. The Sky have inexplicably traded away their future draft picks, with 2024 gone and a swap for 2025, so the Sky have every incentive to go for every win this year. I would have taken a different approach, more like Seattle’s, where you be bad for a season in the hopes of getting someone to pair with Kaleah Copper.

James Wade is relying on either one of his signings turning into a top 10 player, seems unlikely, or for another top 10 player to sign with the team, also unlikely given the Sky’s lack of free agent appeal. Candace Parker came home, but the team is cheap relative to competitors in the ways not covered by the salary cap. If neither of those things happen, a couple of bites at two excellent draft classes would have been better. The risk of either of the picks sent away being in the lottery are slim, but too high for the upside of this Sky team.

For this season, how does this group of bigs contribute to winning? The guards and wings are more set and make some sense, though light on plus passing and overly reliant on long 2s outside of Dana Evans. But the front court is a lot of question marks. Neither Elizabeth Williams nor Isabelle Harrison started for their teams last season. Both are fine players, but neither spaces the floor and both are a bit undersized against the biggest centers, nor is it ideal to have either chasing the stretchiest power forwards. I have Isabelle Harrison penciled in, but if any of the Morgan Bertch, Aneli Maley, Alanna Smith trio show promise for future seasons, Wade should seriously consider them. The lost draft picks are a sunk cost at this point anyways.

Connecticut Sun

Starters:

Brionna Jones C

Alyssa Thomas PF

DeWanna Bonner SF

Tiffany Hayes SG

Natisha Hiedeman PG

Bench

Olivia Nelson-Ododa?? Lauren Cox?? Big

Rebecca Allen – Wing

Ty Harris – Guard

Outlook

How does this team score enough to win in the playoffs? The Sun should be able to win plenty of games in the regular season, especially against high turnover teams when they can get out in transition. The difficult part will be figuring out how to score against quality teams in the half court in the playoffs. Jonquel Jones box score stats were down in 2022 and the Sun weirdly didn’t play her at times in the playoffs, but she was a former MVP big who shot 37% from 3 on 3.4 attempts per game. That is a lot to replace on a team that already played in a phone booth. Especially given they did not add much shooting in the offseason, Hayes awkward but effective spot up 3s aside. This team has a good shot at making the semifinals, which would be a fine outcome, but seems unlikely to make another trip to the finals.

Something else to keep an eye on is who the backup bigs will be. Given Alyssa Thomas’s ability to play 40 minutes in the playoffs, this shouldn’t matter as much then. Over a 40 game regular season though, who of the somewhat random mishmash of backup bigs Connecticut has collected ends up playing will be interesting. If Cox can actually shoot, she fits better, but Nelson-Ododa might simply be the best player of the group, even if her fit is awkward at best on offense.

Dallas Wings

Starters

Teaira McCowan C

Satou Sabally PF

Diamond DeShields SF

Arike Ogunbowale SG

Veronica Burton PG

Bench

Natasha Howard Big

Maddy Siegrist Wing

Crystal Dangerfield Guard

Outlook

Where does this team want to be in two seasons? This is a team that is unlikely to win a round of the playoffs and the future is as muddled as ever. Their highest upside players are going to come off the bench in Awak Kuier and Sabally. Natasha Howard will almost certainly start, though I would prefer to see Sabally start. Sabally is a better shooter and perimeter fit next to McCowan. Speaking of McCowan, they just gave her a max contract. She will help the Wings rack up wins in the regular season, but is very difficult to fit in a good playoff defense.

Their highest profile player, Ogunbowale, could, by moving off ball a bit more, be a fine offensive player. But without improved playmaking for others or quality defense, rough to be paying her the supermax the next three seasons. Diamond DeShields is a sub 30% shooter from 3, so while she does many things well, is a drop off from Allisha Gray especially on this specific roster.

Their draft strategy was even more questionable than the trades. Maddie Siegrist at three is fine. If she can hang on defense, her shooting fits nicely on this team. After that though, trading a draft pick in the deepest draft in years, 2025 when the final covid year runs out, for Stephanie Soares, who plays the same position as McCowan, who as I mentioned above is their recently signed max center, makes no sense. Especially makes no sense given that Soares is a project who has shown little against high level competition.

The pick one spot later, Lou Lopez Seneschal can shoot on the move But I am skeptical of the rest of her game being good enough to get minutes on this Wings team. Kitja Laksa is a better version that they had already signed. And Seneschal is only a year younger than Laksa, so not like the draft pick is a future focused pick.

The Wings should be able to talent their way into the bottom of the playoffs, but this is a team that seems to still be further from a semifinals trip than last season. The most interesting thing about this team for me is how they handle Sabally’s restricted free agency next year and if another team can pry her out and put her in a better context.

2023 WNBA Draft Board Top 10 1.0

The 2023 draft has a sure number 1 pick, two excellent players almost certain to be picked in the lottery, and a lot of question marks after that. A medium strength draft, without necessarily the depth of last year nor the multiple top players of next year’s. Aliyah Boston is the most sure thing since her fellow SC player in A’ja Wilson. Haley Jones and Diamond Miller are likely to be 2 and 3 in some order for me all season. 4-10? Much more up in the air. I can not wait to watch all of them play. Hopefully against each other if we as fans are lucky.

Aliyah Boston Big 6’5″ South Carolina

Aliyah Boston could stop playing basketball right now until next April’s draft and she would be the #1 pick. There is no world in which she is not a #1 pick, if she does in fact come out. I had a silly idea before the 21-22 NCAA season that the number 2 player on my board might keep it a bit closer to Boston. But Boston quickly separated herself from the rest of the field by a wide margin. Aliyah Boston is the most complete defensive prospect since Sylvia Fowles. She can do everything one would want a defensive center to do in the modern game. She can switch onto smaller guards, play at the level, or in drop. She rarely gets herself in foul trouble and is a wonderful help defender. She is an elite rebounder who challenges shots without giving up rebounding position.

Offensively she does have a bit of work to do in scoring efficiently in the paint against the centers who can hang with her in size. As a young W player she may end up with some ugly shooting nights. But even then, she can pass, punish switches, and shoot the 3 a bit, so even if it takes her time to be a premier offensive threat, she will be able to excel next to any other offensive creator. Given her defense, she doesn’t need to be Brittney Griner or even A’ja Wilson to be impactful.

Haley Jones 6’1″ Wing Stanford

Full disclosure, Haley Jones has been my favorite player to watch in college basketball for the past few years. However, I think she has an argument for being the #2 pick in this draft. The W has not fully leaned into big wings like the mnba, but as we saw with the Aces, the ability to surround a dominant big with multiple good wings is incredibly valuable.

Jones passes and handles like a point guard. She can defend 1-4 and many 5s. She is a force in transition with the ability to grab and go. Her main weaknesses are a reluctance to shoot 3s and a lack of an elite first step. The shooting is real, but she has shown in the biggest games an understanding that she has to take that shot if that is what the defense is giving her. And her lack of first step is overrated as an issue, since there are other ways to attack the paint. Her handle will continue to improve and her strength allows her to gain angles. Plenty of wings are effective without Kahleah Copper level athleticism.

Diamond Miller Wing 6’3″ Maryland

If Diamond Miller returns to her sophomore form, she will push for the second pick in this draft. A 6’2” wing with elite athleticism who is already a good 3 point shooter is a lottery pick. While she isn’t the passer that Jones is, nor the defender, she can certainly do both those things. She has a better first step than Jones and can slash to the rim well for someone of her size.

Her junior year was rough, but that can be chalked up to injury. Hopefully she has a healthy and productive senior season. Things to watch will be is her shot good, or merely good enough. Is it 35% or better, or more low 30s. Can she get her assist to turnover ratio a bit better? A slightly negative assist to turnover ratio is not ideal.

Jacy Sheldon Guard 5’10” Ohio State

Here begins the more speculative prospects. The gap between 4 and 10 at this point is simply not that big and I would not put too much stock in where I slot players at this point. Jacy Sheldon gets the spot here as a player who shot 55/37/86 with a positive assist to turnover ratio. She is an off guard, but has shown in a pinch she can take on lead ball handler duties. A good, if not explosive, athlete, Sheldon has a good upside as a solid starting guard in the W.

She shows the tools at times to be an adequate defender, though she tends to play with a few good perimeter defenders and so is not asked to do that much. This is something I will definitely be watching more closely, as my feel for her defense is not nearly as strong as it could be.

Rickea Jackson Wing 6’2″ Tennessee

Rickea Jackson is definitely someone who could rise one spot higher or fall out of my top ten entirely. She did not play a full season last year and was more of a W prospect in theory than actuality the season before. But a 6’2” wing looks like she can shoot and has good athleticism will always deserve attention.

Sub 30% from 3 and 55% from the free throw line in her last full season is concerning, but her shot does not look broken and as Jackie Young and Gabby Williams show, teams will take chances on wings who can’t yet shoot 3s in the hopes they add that. Jackson would likely be an upside pick, not someone who will walk in and contribute right away.

Charisma Osborne Guard 5’9″ UCLA

I don’t get Pac 12 network so I did not watch Charisma Osborne nearly as often last season as I would have liked to. But what I saw was promising and I saw more of her as a sophomore. Sub 40% from 2 is tough, but a good free throw shooter makes me optimistic about her future shooting. A good assist to turnover ratio and she is a good athlete. She seems like someone who may be able to play either guard position in a pinch, though she is more of an off ball guard.

Always read Em Adler at the Next, but definitely read Em talking about Osborne on the defensive end in her draft board. A theme for me in watching guards this year is focusing a bit more attention on their defense. Typically, offense is more important for guards, but they do have to be able to stay on the floor and good point of attack defense is valuable.

Ashley Owusu Guard 6’0″ Virginia Tech

At her best plays like Chelsea Gray. Like Gray, lacks straight line speed, but is a big strong guard who can make tough shots. Someone who will benefit from spread pick and rolls at the next level, since she has the passing and good feel, but needs assistance in generating advantages. First two seasons at Maryland averaged 2 to 1 assist to turnover ratio.

Low volume on 3s and only one season of being accurate, but something she can potentially add. Defensively would do better in a switching scheme where she can use her size and strength to defend up. Can struggle to defend quicker, shiftier guards.

Ashley Joens Wing 6’1″Iowa St.

In college, Joens is a 4 who uses her size and strength to score down low. In the pros, she will likely have to play more like Jackie Young or Bridget Carleton, a wing with good size who occasionally uses that size when she has an advantage. Joens as limited upside, so there are certainly players with higher upside I have after her, but this range becomes fairly speculative and I think she would be a good pick for an already good team.

The way Joens plays in college and how she will have to play in the pros are totally different and that makes projection difficult. But a player with her size and strength who shot high 30s from 3 on 7 attempts per game is worth a look. Can she be a good enough team defender to overcome lack of foot speed on the perimeter? How much is that even an issue? Would love to see her get to guard someone like Texas’ Shaylee Gonzalez, to see how she holds up defending on the perimeter, but may not happen much.

Elizabeth Kitley Big 6’6″ Virginia Tech

Elizabeth Kitley is a dominant offensive center at the college level. At 6’6” with a high release and good touch, she is very hard to stop. 55% effective field goal percentage while barely shooting 3s is impressive. That is roughly where A’ja Wilson was. Offense should be her reason for making the next level.

Defense is going to be the big question. Like with many college centers, they are not asked to guard in space the they will be in the pros. Her performance against Florida Gulf Coast in the tournament last year showed this as she scored 42 but VT lost as they struggled with the five out FGCU offense.

Zia Cooke Guard 5’9″ South Carolina

Zia Cooke has the athleticism to shine at the next level. The questions come regarding how real is her shooting, good some years not others, and ca nshe improve upon her negative assist to turnover ratio. Cooke is hurt by the at times archaic offensive spacing that South Carolian plays in. South Carolina should be favorites for the championship again, so it works, but it doesn’t highlight a player like Cooke’s offensive skills.

With Destanni Henderson off to the W, Cooke may get the opportunity to run the offense more as well. She has tended to have an even assist to turnover ratio. Improving that is important, as she is a bit undersized for the off guard position, so the ability to run a team would be helpful.

Possible entrants to the top 10

Some players who could join my top ten are Ajha Blackell, Grace Berger, and Shaylee Gonzalez. Can Blackwell show more perimeter skill, can Berger improve her 3 point shooting, can Gonzalez remain an effective slasher against a higher level of competition? Sedona Prince is someone to keep in mind as well. She will unfortunately miss the year with an injury, but she could have the size and smarts to play a Mercedes Russell type role. Better shooter, maybe not quite the passer Russell is. Dyasha Fair is a player who I have not seen at all, so will be paying attention to how she does at Syracuse as she moves up in competition.

2022 WNBA Season Awards

MVP: Breanna Stewart

There are two candidates who both would be worthy winners of this award. A’ja Wilson very well may win as the best player on the #1 seed and would be a deserving winner. But for me, Stewart has been a bit better. Both had very efficient seasons, with nearly identical true shooting percentages, but Stewart was a hair better. Both players had positive assist to turnover numbers, but Stewart’s was better, 2.9 assists to 1.3 turnovers, with Wilson at 2.1 assists to 1.7 turnovers. They had identical free throw rates, something we typical think of as Wilson having an advantage at.

Team success doesn’t provide much of distinction for me either way. Kelsey Plum is on my all-wnba first team with Jackie Young a strong candidate for second team, even if she didn’t end up on it for me. Jewell Loyd has had a down year for her. Seattle ends up fourth and Aces first, makes sense.

On defense both are leading candidates for defensive player of the year, so not much of an advantage there. This is one of the closest MVP races one can imagine. Team record does not matter to me beyond a sort of minimum level. Any of the teams in the top 5 of the league have won enough to have a candidate.

All-in one stats have their limitations, especially the ones available to us in the W. But Stewart has the edge in whichever one you look at. Estimated Contribution’s WAR, Kevin Pelton’s WARP, , the WNBA’s own Player Impact Estimate , and even win shares. Plenty of issues with each of those, oh how I miss PIPM, and none of them are dispositive, but I do think it worth acknowledging when they all point in the same direction. If I had to bet money I would put it on A’ja winning at this point and I would be fine with that. She is an amazing player who I am lucky to get to watch, even if I chose Stewart for MVP.

DPOY: A’ja Wilson

Similar to MVP, this award comes down to Wilson vs. Stewart. I try not to let narratives influence who I pick for various awards, but it is possible I am giving this one to Wilson cause MVP went to Stewart. Just noting that, though I do think A’ja has been excellent defensively. Wilson had a heavier lift in keeping the Aces defense afloat than the other candidates. Dearica Hamby and Kia Stokes are good defenders, but neither are as good as Ezi Magbegor. Gabby Williams and Jewell Loyd are better than the respective Aces wing defenders. This does show in the overall team stats, the Aces are relatively low to have a DPOY winner, but the other teams win through a committee approach. Seattle with those mentioned, Washington with the three guards/wings all competing for first team all-defense, and Connecticut with Alyssa Thomas and Jonquel Jones.

A’ja isn’t quite on the level of switching out on the perimeter as Stewart, but Wilson is no slouch and she can better hold up against the bigger centers like Teaira McCowan than Stewart. Stewart forces more steals, but doesn’t provide the same level of rim protection. Wilson’s ability to play the five with more limited defensive players allows the Aces to play their best 5 players, whereas Seattle felt it necessary to swap out a good offensive player in Katie Lou Samuelson for Gabby Williams. Like MVP, if Stewart wins this I would be fine with it, I very nearly chose her, but A’ja has this for me.

6th Woman of the Year: Brionna Jones

Brionna Jones played better than many starting bigs in the W, she just is behind two of the few who are better than her in Alyssa Thomas and Jonquel Jones. More interesting than winning this award for Jones is who she will be playing for next season. As an unrestricted free agent, the Sun will not be able to keep her without her taking a discount on what she could get. My vote is either Minnesota if they don’t get Aliyah Boston or Dallas. Both of those places have players in Napheesa Collier and Satou Sabally who can stretch the floor at the 4 and let Jones do what she does in the paint.

Rookie of the Year: Rhyne Howard

Shooting 38% from 3 on nearly 8 attempts per game and blocking nearly a shot a game and getting 1.6 steals per game is the foundation of a player who can play a long time in the W. If that is all they do, every team can use wings who can defend and shoot. Howard can potentially do much more than that. A 2.8 to 1.6 assist to turnover ratio is very good for a rookie with a fairly heavy playmaking load. Especially on a Dream starved for offense at times, where Howard was regularly facing the other team’s best defender and at times double teams.

As the season progressed Howard improved her ability to work her way to the rim and collapse the defense. That is a very good sign as to whether she can drive elite offense by herself or will need to be matched with another offensive dynamo to challenge for championships in time. Either way, a hugely successful season.

Most Improved Player: Jackie Young

The past few Aces playoff runs one of the open questions was whether Jackie Young would be able to play. Each time, a player who was both reluctant to shoot from 3 and inaccurate was played off the floor. That should no longer be an issue for this year’s Jackie Young. While she is likely not a 43% 3 point shooter now, even just 35% from 3 on 3.4 attempts per game is more than good enough to force teams to take her seriously. Young has always had the playmaking and the ability to get inside. The ability to space the floor for her teammates is an important step forward.

All-WNBA First Team

Breanna Strewart

A’ja Wilson

Candace Parker

Kelsey Plum

Skylar Diggins-Smith

All-WNBA Second Team

Alyssa Thomas

Sabrina Ionescu

Elena Delle-Donne

Jonquel Jones

Emma Meesseman

Final spot on the All-WNBA second team was the hardest award to figure out in this entire post. Meesseman got it for me for having an excellent season along with better defense than we’ve seen in the past. But both of her teammates Courtney Vandersloot and Kahleah Copper had good arguments. Jackie Young could have made it as well, but as good as finisher as she was she was fourth on the Aces team in terms of shot creation.

No Dallas Wings representatives for the 6th team is odd, but no obvious candidates jump out. Allisha Gray was the steadiest player and a bit more shot creation might have made it, but she excelled at playing off of Arike Ogunbowale or Teaira McCowan, who have defensive issues that kept them off for me. Ionescu isn’t a defensive whiz, but more consistently impactful than any of the Wings players.

All-Defense First Team:

Natasha Cloud -Guard

Ariel Atkins – Guard

Allisha Gray- Forward

Breanna Stewart – Forward

A’ja Wilson – Center

All-Defense Second Team

Brittney Sykes -Guard

Gabby Williams – Guard

Alysha Clark -Forward

Candace Parker – Forward

Jonquel Jones -Center

Cheating a bit by putting Clark at guard, but I could have put Clark there. Both of them guarded plenty of guards over the course of the season and both deserved to be on the team. Toughest omission was Alyssa Thomas. Over the course of the season may have been a better defender than Candace, but Candace’s peak in the games where she put forth maximum effort is higher. Jonquel is an impactful defender who uses her size to barricade the rim while being nimble enough to be ok in space. Her defensive rebounding is a plus as well. I said this on twitter, but the Jones vs. Thomas debate is a tough one and I am very prepared to be wrong. Defense is hard to measure.

Sylvia Fowles could have made it as she was still one of the best defenders in the league, but between games missed and the Lynx being near the bottom of the league in defense, I left her off. Kayla Thornton also had a good season and could have made it, but not quite over Clark or Parker. Thorton isn’t as good chasing perimeter players as Clark, nor does she provide rim protection like Parker. Ezi Magbegor had a case, especially when she was starting and playing heavier minutes, but only so many spots.

All-Rookie Team

Rhyne Howard

NaLyssa Smith

Shakira Austin

Rebekah Gardner

Queen Egbo

Apologies to Veronica Burton who ended strong but didn’t get enough playing time. Emily Engstler had a promising rookie season, but not better than her teammate Egbo.

The Upside of NaLyssa Smith

NaLyssa Smith, the second overall pick of the Indiana Fever, is not having the level of success of the players picked either ahead or behind her, at least not yet. Rhyne Howard, the number one overall pick in the 2022 draft, was deservedly named to the All-Star game that just happened in Chicago. Shakira Austin, the third overall pick, is starting over two other players in Myisha Hines-Allen and Elizabeth Williams who are veterans who have started 239 games between the two of them. Both are having very impressive rookie seasons, to match anything recent rookies have done.

However, the story of a player’s career is not told in their first year in the league. Look at last year’s class, with Dana Evans having the best games from the class in 2022. Michaela Onyenwere, last year’s rookie of the year, has struggled to find playing time and her shot from both 2 and 3.

NaLyssa Smith has shown enough to think she has a chance at being the best scorer player from this class, in time. NaLyssa Smith’s strength is her scoring versatility. She can both shoot 3s and pressure the rim. After a cold start, she is shooting a very respectable 35% from 3, though only 58%. While she is not going to be running off screens like Howard anytime soon, her ability to stretch the floor at the 4 and 5 is valuable. Austin has yet to make a 3 in her career.

Smith is able to put pressure on the rim from the perimeter in ways that Howard does not. Austin will use her speed against slower centers, but Smith has been able to at times beat even good 4 defenders. Howard is shooting a decent percentage at the rim, but hardly gets there. Though both Howard and Austin are good athletes, Smith walked into the league as one of the most explosive players, able to soar for rebounds. The Fever can continue to user her for alley oops to provide an unusual ability to put pressure on the rim, something only really Brianna Turner in Phoenix also does.

The table below shows how Smith is versatile compared to Howard and Austin. All 3 are effective for rookie, but Smith is the most balanced. Usage and 3 point stats three per Her Hoop Stats and % in the paint and % less than 5 feet per wnba.com/stats. Worth noting that shooting numbers by distance can be wonky, where does a layup count when the player took off 6 feet away but ended less than 5, but still interesting.

	USG	3 Pt%	3PA/40	% Point in the Paint	Shooting % less than 5 feet
Rhyne Howard	23.8%	36%	8.7	22%	60%
NaLyssa Smith	22%	35%	3.6	49%	61%
Shakira Austin	18%	0	.1	67%	68%

All three of these players will improve as they move forward, so the fact that Howard and Austin have been so effective and will keep getting better give them an advantage. However, going into the draft it was acknowledged that Smith was likely going to take a bit more time, as her transition to the W was potentially going to be trickier than Howard, who already had the dead eye shooting, or Austin, who was stepping into a veteran laden team with multiple quality veterans, including a former MVP.

Smith is hampered by being on the youngest team with the fewest quality veterans around her. Kelsey Mitchell should have made the All-Star team and Victoria Vivians has had a good season, but other than those two the surrounding talent is not as strong as the Dream have, never mind the possible championship contender Mystics. Smith will look even better, assuming the Fever rebuild adds sufficient talent. Aliyah Boston next to Smith would be quite enjoyable, but even the size and shooting of Diamond Miller on the wing would be a solid addition.

The one area that Smith is well behind both Austin and Howard is in defense. While Smith competes and has shown the ability to move her feet in space against smaller defenders, she is not the level of help defender that the others are. Howard, a wing listed 2” shorter, blocks more shots and gets many more steals than Smith

As the Fever grow over the next few years, Smith has the tools to be the prototypical modern big on offense. Her size and speed means she can plat either 4 or 5 depending on the needs of the Fever and she should be able to help anchor a good playoff level offense in time.

Tiering the WNBA at the All-Star Break.

The All-Star break is a good time to put the wnba in tiers.

Championship Favorite:

Chicago Sky

The Sky have a great combination of depth with every player on the roster able to contribute during the regular season, but also a fairly clearly defined top 7 or 8 for the playoffs. The Sky’s ability to stretch the minutes for Candace Parker and Courtney Vandersloot in the playoffs will give them the leg up on the rest of the league. James Wade is my favorite for head coach and GM of the year. I am overall skeptical of combining the two in one person, but he has made it work with the Sky.

Finals favorite, championship hopeful

Las Vegas Aces

Becky Hammon has mostly coached this team well, but I would like to know what is happening with the team’s bench. If the players on the bench were not good enough, then they should have been cut and better options found. Was Crystal Bradford healthy to take backup 3/4 minutes? I am as high on Kierstan Bell as anyone, but waiting for her to develop may be counterproductive for a team that could win the championship this year. Wonder if Hammon and the front office are on the same page.

Semifinal hopefuls. Could win championship if things break right

Seattle Storm

Can this team score enough in the playoffs against the best defenses? The defense has been as good as ever, but scoring can be a real chore for this team when the big 3 are not on the court. Tina Charles may help that, provided she doesn’t hurt the defense too much. Breanna Stewart is my pick for MVP and DPOY if the season ended today. I picked them to win before the year, but the offensive issues have knocked them down a step from the top 2.

Connecticut Sun

Jonquel Jones is the Sun’s best player, but possibly because of her malleability the Sun have not been set up to maximize her skill set. This contributes to the team’s issues scoring in the half court against good teams. Their offensive rebounding and transition offense can pound mediocre teams, but the team’s issues against the Sky in last year’s playoffs do not seem to be fixed. More DiJonai Carrington, if her 3 point shooting maintains, and less AT at the 3 might be one solution, to give JJ more space to operate.

Washington Mystics

Is EDD a top 4 player in the W on the same tier as A’ja, Breanna, Jonquel? If so, Washington could win a championship. But that is a lot to ask of someone who missed two seasons with injury. The new playoff structure is perfect for this year’s Mystics, who deserve better than a one and done game on the road as the 5th seed, if that is where they end up. While they would be on the road for two games in Seattle if the season ended today in a best of 3, that is much better than the old single elimination style. Series are where basketball is at its best.

Likely making the playoffs. Not winning a round.

Atlanta Dream

The Dream keep winning a decent number of games and I still think they would be better off with one more lottery trip as I wrote here. I’m not going to complain too much though, because getting to see Rhyne Howard play 2 games in Connecticut in the playoffs, or whoever the end up facing, will be awesome.

Dallas Wings

This has been a promising season for most of Dallas’s better players. Allisha Gray should have made all-star over Kahleah Copper. Satou Sabally when healthy and available has been excellent. Arike Ogunbowale will be paid like a top 5 or so player next year, so continuing to improve her shot selection is important, as her 54% TS so far this season is an improvement and ok, but could be better. Dallas would benefit from Vickie Johnson settling on a big rotation. Fun location for Brionna Jones to end up next year, cause presumably that would solve who the starting center is.

Hoping to make the playoffs

Los Angeles Sparks

Start Chennedy Carter. The Sparks do not have their own draft pick in the next draft because of trading for Carter. Nneka Ogwumike is carrying the Sparks to hopefully make the playoffs, but for this team to climb any higher in the next couple of seasons they need see if Carter can begin to reach her potential. Jordin Canada has been fine and Kristi Toliver can still shoot, but they aren’t changing LA’s fortunes in future seasons.

Phoenix Mercury

Until Brittney Griner is free it will be tough to talk about the Mercury. But basketball is still being played there. The Tina Charles experiment did not work, for among other reasons, this team seemingly not realizing who their best players are. Charles was going to be a somewhat awkward fit with Griner, but even more so with Skylar Diggins-Smith. The Phoenix Mercury should not trade SDS unless things are really untenable. If they do, picks and at least one decent young player should be the goal and a full rebuild, even if Diana Taurasi plays one more year. Struggling for relevance for DT’s year 41 season is not worth it.

New York Liberty

Sabrina Ionescu living up to her full potential has been the most important development of the season for New York, but the best story in the W for me is Han Xu looking like a real live W level player. She should be starting, but as the first big off the bench she has been excellent. Who knows how often she will make it to the W in future seasons, so I am going to enjoy every game I see of her this year and appreciate her growth as a player

Minnesota Lynx

Cheryl Reeve the coach is once again bailing out Cheryl Reeve the GM. The process of arriving at a functional W team was unorthodox with year 2 of Reeve stumbling into a veteran pg bought out by their original team, this year with Moriah Jefferson. This team getting Aliyah Boston to pair with Napheesa Collier next year would be very fun, if they can’t make the playoffs. Otherwise, hopefully Reeve can figure out a decent center on reasonable money, cause one more year of the Powers, McBride, Achonwa contracts will hamstrung this team as Collier begins her well deserved max in 2023.

Hoping for Aliyah Boston

Indiana Fever

See my piece on both Atlanta and Indiana to get my thoughts. Basically, good job Indiana getting good young talent. Try for that for one more season next year and then see about really competing.

Embracing the Rebuild is Working for Atlanta and Indiana. But What Comes Next?

The Atlanta Dream and Indiana Fever have made real progress in their respective rebuilds. After two years, in the case of Atlanta, and more than two in the case of Indiana, of aimless attempts to be the 7th or 8th seed without much success, both teams are set up much better to one day make a run in the playoffs.

For both Atlanta and Indiana, the key first step was the top of the 2022 draft. The Dream used their own third pick and some of the return they got for trading Chennedy Carter to trade up to select Rhyne Howard. Eighteen games in, all signs point to Rhyne Howard being good enough to at least be the second best player on a team that competes deep into the playoffs. She joins Aari McDonald in interesting young talent. McDonald will hopefully join Howard as a starter on said team, but she seems likely to at least be a good backup, as she has raised her true shooting from a below average 48% to an acceptable 56% as a sophomore.

The Fever, in turn, took NaLyssa Smith with the second pick. While Smith has not been as consistent as Howard, she has certainly looked the part of a player who could one day be a key piece on a good playoff team. The Fever also added more young talent than Atlanta alongside Smith in Emily Engstler, Queen Egbo and Destanni Henderson. If even one of those players can be a starter on a good playoff team, that is good for the Fever.

The Dream were more beset by bad luck than poor roster decision in 2021, but still had to respond to where they ended up. They were smart enough to recognize that once the relationship with Chennedy Carter was beyond salvage, they needed to recoup what they could. They received a competent point guard in Erica Wheeler and a pick that they already flipped for a potential star. New ownership made some fine choices with Dan Padover brought in from the Aces to run the front office and Tanisha Wright as coach.

The Fever, on the other hand, were undone by poor roster decisions more than bad luck. They were not young, nor good, an unfortunate combination. They picked players who were not good enough, in drafts without sure things. They overpaid, relative to the cap, for aging veterans who were not going to take the Fever anywhere. I am happy for Danielle Robinson getting paid, but signing a 32 year old point guard who doesn’t shoot 3s was a curious decision at the time and has not made more sense in hindsight. With Tamika Catchings moving on and Lin Dunn as interim manager, the approach has become much more sensible.

Indiana is already out of the playoffs, so they should be focusing on seeing what they have with the younger players on the roster. Atlanta has a more interesting conundrum in that they would be in the playoffs as the 8th seed if the season were to end today. While playoff experience is worth something, given the way the WNBA draft works with two year cumulative records, the Dream would be sacrificing the 2nd best odds at a top 2 pick for the privilege of being waxed by the Las Vegas Aces.

Losing a couple of playoff games will not help the Dream as much as Aliyah Boston, Haley Jones, or Diamond Miller would. Rhyne Howard still has work to do to show that she can be engine of a good offense. She may be better suited to using her shooting to play off someone more equipped to break down defenses. Add one more top draft pick if you are Atlanta, and then see who might be interested in signing with two top draft picks, one in Howard already an established All-Star caliber player.

Indiana will have a high draft pick in 2023. They should once again use their cap space to take on unwanted contracts from other teams, a la the Bria Hartley trade, rather than trying to sign a free agent like Brionna Jones. Jones is very good, and should earn a larger contract from someone not the Sun next year, but not so good to lead the Fever higher than a 7th seed. Indiana likely should be aiming for another decent pick even in the 2024 draft, as Indiana is less likely than Atlanta to get decent veterans to sign there unless there is already a top team in place. Caitlin Clark or Paige Bueckers would pair very nicely with NaLyssa Smith and co. Then Indiana can really be ready to contend.

2022 WNBA Season Preview 3: New York, Phoenix, Seattle and Washington

Here is part 3 of 3 of my season previews. If you missed them, here are part 1 and part 2. New York, Phoenix, Seattle and Washington. Key questions and 7 interesting roster spots.

Brittney Griner will not be a part of the Phoenix section. Here is the latest news concerning her detention in Russia. And because the WNBA and the people close to Griner are encouraging folks to make more noise about her detention, I wanted to note it here. I am hoping that Griner is able to make it home and focus on her health and well being soon.

New York Liberty

How far in the playoffs does New York need to go to not have put themselves on the proverbial treadmill of mediocrity? A hybrid rebuild without any top 15 players is a tough outcome and doesn’t lead to winning many playoff rounds typically. Other than Sabrina Ionescu if everything goes perfectly in her development, who is likely to be a top 15 player on this roster? Maybe Natasha Howard with a full, healthy season, but certainly no guarantees.

I am not a championship or bust kind of person, but all of this for the Liberty to once again be fighting for the 8th seed does not seem like sustainable team building. Maybe if Nyara Sabally comes back fully healthy in 2023 her and Sabrina can lead this team into the future, but we shall see. Then again, maybe they sign Breanna Stewart and/or Jewell Loyd in the next couple of years and this is all academic because a New York team that is willing to spend money will attract top free agents.

Starters:

Sami Whitcomb: Who counts as pg between Whitcomb and Sabrina Ionescu is an interesting question and I lean Whitcomb for now. Whitcomb is a solid starter who can shoot and play make and is not terrible on defense. Too many turnovers and not as good assist rate as one would like, so hopefully she settles in if NY uses her as their main point guard.

Sabrina Ionescu: Needs to be the shooter from 3 off the dribble she looked like to unlock her full star potential, but even without that is a solid player. Likely won’t be as good as her college teammate Satou Sabally, but that is no shame given how good Sabally is. She is still the highest upside player on the team, so will be worth watching. If she can take over lead ball handling duties from Whitcomb this team will go farther.

Betnijah Laney: Can Laney be efficient if it makes sense for her to take a step back if any of the other Liberty players step up? Her shooting numbers in 2021 were still up from her career average, but not nearly as good as in 2020. Her penchant for long 2s also hurt her TS% where she shot 53%. Especially if she plays more off ball, more 3s and fewer long 2s would be good.

Natasha Howard: I would play Howard, especially in the playoffs, at center as much as possible. I suspect Sandy Brondello does not agree with me and so it will be interesting to see how Howard does at the 4. Two main things to watch with Howard is can she stay out of foul trouble and still be a disruptive defender and can she be effective from the perimeter as a 4.

Stefanie Dolson: Also a big who needs to watch for foul trouble. Fouling could be an issue for this Liberty team but especially for the bigs. Should be a serious upgrade on offense when she can play as someone who can pass, shoot and set quality screens. But there is a ceiling on how effective she can be given defensive concerns, which is why she was the perfect third big for the Sky and might be overmatched starting for the Liberty if they make the playoffs.

Reserves:

Micheala Onyenwere: An enjoyable surprise in 2021, she certainly outperformed my expectations in winning rookie of the year. Though deserved, she was out of the rotation mostly by the end of the year as her hot start from 3 did not continue. Did she add to her perimeter game? Will she be able to convince teams to guard her out there? Or can she play at the 3 for this now pretty big heavy team.

Han Xu: The most unknown of the players I have written about for this series, but the now 6’10” Han Xu is a skilled center. Still may not have the strength to really bang in the W, but I hope we get to see how her skill level at her height translates in the W. A matchup with her national team teammate Li Yueru, who is looking to play for the Sky, would be particularly fun.

Phoenix Mercury

Key Question:

How many players on this team are both good on offense and defense? Skylar Diggins-Smith could be if she improves her focus and effort on the defensive end. Brianna Turner could be if she is played with four shooters on offense and just has to finish. Other than that, it is unclear how this team is going to play both ends consistently at the level they aspire to.

Trying to maximize the end of Diana Taurasi’s career is good. However, this is also a year where Phoenix repeatedly punting on the draft might come to hurt .0

them. Even with BG, this is a team that has some depth in the front court, but not much less elsewhere.

Starters

Skylar Diggins-Smith: Two straight seasons of good numbers from 3 mean her shooting improvement is looking real. That is huge as she is still fast and strong for a point guard. Now improving her defense would benefit Phoenix, as Diana Tuarasi certainly isn’t taking the tougher back court assignments.

Diana Taurasi: When healthy showed that she can still get buckets, so this will be a season of hoping she is healthy when it matters most. Hope she feels up for some of her 30 foot shots early in the clock, as those are always a joy.

Diamond DeShields: Still has the outline of a productive and effective wing, but her TS% has gone down since her rookie year and has been under 50% the last two years, which is not good. Health has played a role, so hope for her being fully healthy. It is also missing shots and just not being effective in a half court offense. Phoenix may be better, but I would not have signed her to that contract.

Brianna Turner: Some ability to do something with the ball in her hands more than a foot from the basket would be nice if she is going to be played at the 4 instead of a smaller 5. As a smaller 5, her speed and defensive playmaking would be very useful and her lack of offensive game less of an issue. Maybe with Tina Charles’ ability to space the floor this pairing can work.

Tina Charles: In 2021 she was a very good offensive force and a not good defensive presence. This Phoenix team has more offensive talent than that Washington team did not but fewer good defenders, so this might be an even more extreme case of good offense and bad defense.

Reserves:

Kia Nurse: If Nurse is healthy and able to play this year, she should be able to challenge for the starting small forward role. DeShields did not come to Phoenix to come off the bench, but Nurse may be a better fit next to the other Phoenix starters with her ability to hit open shots. 36% from 2 shows she has much less upside than DeShields, but 35% from 3 is better than DeShields has ever shot.

Sam Thomas: If Thomas makes the team, it will be a test of the utility of a strictly 3 and D college player transitioning to the pros. This was one of the reasons I did not have Lexie Hull as a first round pick. But Thomas and Hull may show that this archetype can work.

Seattle Storm

Key Question:

Who is the fifth player on this team in crunch time, assuming Mercedes Russell plays at center. Not being able to go 5 out does limit this teams offense to a degree, but they don’t really have a good option next to Stewart to go 5 out, so Russell it is. That other spot though seems far more up for grabs. I’d bet the competition is between Briann January and Gabby Williams. Both are good defenders, but January is the better shooter while Williams offers more versatility with her size and passing.

I’d give the edge to January, if Loyd can handle guarding Kahleah Copper and other taller players without being killed. January can then guard the tougher guard option and allow Sue Bird and easier assignment. January can then hit open 3s and will be guarded in a way that Gabby Williams won’t be. Even if Williams has a good year from 3, teams probably will still dare her to shoot to take away the Storm’s much more dangerous options.

Starters:

Sue Bird: If Bird is healthy for the playoffs, she will be able to use her smarts to be a fine help defender and her shooting and passing to lead the Storm. For a player who never goes into the paint on either side of the ball, she is still at her age very effective.

Jewell Loyd: Made strides in creating her own shot and creating shots for others in 2021. This should continue to grow. While her shooting percentages fell a bit under a heavier load, they were still quite good. A career high in assists with only a small jump in turnovers helped as well. A good, if not great, defender and all told Loyd is the best shooting guard in the W.

Gabby Williams: I anticipate January finishing games, but think Williams starts to allow Jewell Loyd to play her more natural position. Williams excels with the ball in her hands, as a decent passer and finisher but not a shooter. How much will Seattle play her on ball, given they have better options, but those options are also better off ball players than Williams?

Breanna Stewart: The best player in the world. Hopefully she can be healthy all year as Seattle is my choice to win the championship. Their best players, other than Bird, are in their prime and Stewart is key to this. On the court, it is looking like 2018 was an outlier of a season shooting wise. If she can get closer to those shooting numbers that would obviously benefit her and the Storm. But she is amazing at everything even if she isn’t that level of shooter.

Mercedes Russell: Hopefully she is healthy, as the W is as always not forthcoming with any medical information so we have no idea what her injury is or any kind of timeline for when she might be back. Doesn’t space the floor, nor is she a center who can switch, but she is perfectly acceptable at everything else a 6’6” center should be good at.

Reserves:

Briann January: Her fit on Seattle should be great. Her major limitation is reluctance to fire from 3 unless wide open and inability to create her own shot, but neither are thing she will be needed to do in Seattle. She can take her open 3s and defend at an elite level and nothing more on Seattle.

Ezi Magbegor: Her outside game has not developed, but if anyone on this roster can offer lineup versatility to alternate with Russell, it will be Magbegor. Seattle doesn’t seem to trust her yet, but she is still only 22 and is still improving. Her 3 point shooting

Washington Mystics:

Key Question?

The key question is the health of Elena Delle Donne and to a lesser but still important degree, Alysha Clark. But that is not something I can know about and we can just hope for good health for both. My question is about the decision to trade down from 1 to 3 and draft Shakira Austin. Unfortunately, the Christyn Williams, the 14th pick who the Mystics also got in the trade with Atlanta, is out for the year with an injury. So even more than most trades this one will be incomplete. Thibault may have also been counting on the swap pick they got next year being good, if the Sparks do not live up to their potential.

Thibault knows basketballl far more than me, but I am all in on Rhyne Howard and especially given Alysha Clark’s health concerns, I think she would have been a better fit on this Mystics team. Austin has to really develop her offensive game, especially given wings who shoot like Howard and can defend are harder to find than centers like Austin. There’s a reason Clark is being paid more than Elizabeth Williams. Thibault is an excellent gm though, so I look forward to seeing if and how I was wrong in my evaluation of both.

Starters:

Natasha Cloud: Cloud is good at either guard spot and thus it will be interesting to see how much of the season she plays at point guard and how often she plays next to Rui Machida or another point guard. Particularly given she is also going to be playing some with non-shooters in Elizabeth Williams and Shakira Austin, if she can have a good season shooting from 3, that would help the Mystics.

Ariel Atkins: Made incremental progress as a shot creator and passer. To be more than an elite role player will need to continue to improve. As is though, she is a very effective player. An excellent on and off ball defender.

Alysha Clark: A 34 almost 35 year old wing who relies on her lateral quickness dealing with a foot injury is tough. If Clark comes back healthy and is still a good defender, great. But if not, one wonders if the Mystics will regret passing on Rhyne Howard.

Elena Delle Donne: The best offensive player in basketball when healthy. One of the greatest shooters in W history and at 6’5” has learned to use her size effectively. Hopefully we get at least a couple more healthy seasons out of her.

Elizabeth Williams: A common theme with former and even maybe current Dream players, she has not played in this kind of space. Should be able to pressure the rim as a roller in pick and rolls. Will be interesting to see if Washington plays a switching style with her, as she is fairly athletic for a center but has not traditionally been asked to switch out onto guards.

Reserves

Rui Machida: I don’t tend to root for one player over others, but I do hope Machida’s brilliance translates to the W. A brilliant passer, I think she can hit enough shots and defend just enough to be an effective backup point guard.

Shakira Austin: To be clear, Austin is a good player and I was high on her before the draft. I may criticize the Mystics front office, but she was not able to control where she was drafted or the circumstances. I hope for nothing but the best for her. Her defense should be good, if not right away as a rookie. She will be a star if she can shoot efficiently and gain advantages against other starting centers with her face up game.

2022 WNBA Season Preview Part 2: Indiana, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, and Minnesota.

Part 2 of 3 of my WNBA previews. Click here for part 1. Here is Indiana, Las Vegas, Los Angeles and Minnesota. As before, this will cover a key question for each team and the top 7 most interesting rotation players.

Indiana Fever

Key Question:

What does this team look like in 2025? More than Atlanta, Indiana has a realistic sense, finally, of where their roster is at. Indiana has to nail and be lucky with their draft picks since free agents are not signing in Indiana. And while the Fever know more than I do, there was some very confusing picks made by them in the most recent draft. If one of Lexie Hull or Queen Egbo turn into borderline starter quality players, then the picks worked. The main concern I have with both drafting both is the lack of upside. It is possible to see how either could be decent W players, but the odds of either becoming even above average starters seems low. NaLyssa Smith was a good pick, but whether she is a star or merely a good W player will be fun to watch as well.

The decision to trade Teaira McCowan showed the Fever are not going to try for the 8th seed at all costs. A step back this season for a chance at Aliyah Boston and better days in the future is smart. This year will be one of evaluating the draft picks they have as well as hiring a new general manager, who will then have to decide whether Marianne Stanley is the right coach to move forward with. Stanley is a Hall of Famer, but unlikely she is coaching this team for much longer.

Starters:

Danielle Robinson: The contract was too much and for too long, but Robinson is a fine player and the fact that this team in theory has more shooting than last year’s should be to her benefit. Too soon probably to cut her salary and not the worst idea to have a solid veteran point guard to help the rookies become acclimated to the league. If she ever could shoot it from 3 it would be nice, but probably not at this point going to happen.

Kelsey Mitchell: One of the better scorers in the W, now that she is on a max contract, should be looking to up her playmaking and defense. She’s unlikely going to be as good as Jewell Loyd in those areas, but the gap does not have to be as big as it is now. Her 3 point rate has also gone down every year of her career, which for such a good shooter is not ideal.

Lexie Hull: Hull may not start right away, but she in theory provides the shooting and defense this team has been lacking from the 3 position the last few years. She will not be as good as a rookie as Tiffany Mitchell, but teams might actually guard Hull at the 3 point line, which would benefit the rest of the starting lineup. Does Hull have the foot speed to defend quicker 3s and 2s? Something to watch.

NaLyssa Smith: Should walk into the W as one of the best athletes in the league. How will that translate? Will they show up in block and steals and how is her finishing going to be at the W level? Stretching her game out will be important long term, but not something to worry about as a rookie.

Queen Egbo: This team has no good centers with W experience. I don’t know if this team could be worse defensively than the last few, but if they end up with 2 rookies in the front court, it could get ugly. Long term my questions about Egbo are on the offensive end far more than the defensive, but she may take her lumps as a rookie on both ends.

Reserves

Tiffany Mitchell: As unusual as it is, once again Mitchell shot nearly 90% from 3 and under 30% from 3. Usually those go hand in hand, but not with her. She is best with the ball in her hands given her lack of shooting, but is not a great finisher in the paint even given her athleticism, nor much of a playmaker with an even assist to turnover ratio. Big year as an unrestricted free agent to see what her next contract will be.

Emily Engstler: Does her high level feel allow her to defend multiple positions? How does her elite help defense translate? The offensive concerns are there, but she will have the time to figure those out if she can defend at the W level. Showing she can play some 3 and not only the 4 would be helpful as well.

Las Vegas

Key Question

What is A’ja Wilson’s best position in the playoff, at the highest levels? And if the answer is at center, does this team have enough quality perimeter play to be able to play her there? And if it is at power forward, who is that center that can help the team defend and not get in the way of Wilson on offense?

My suspicion is the answer is center. If you have a Liz Cambage level center, you make do, but this iteration of the Aces does not. Here is where the selection of Mya Hollingshed made sense and her subsequent waiving so surprising. This team needs a few of the 3/4 types who can shoot 3s. They don’t need offensive creation from those spots, which makes it slightly easier to find, but that archetype is still hard to find. If Hollingshed simply was not good enough ok, but she should have been kept if there was any chance of her growing into a contributing player.

In a playoff series, Dearica Hamby should be starting and if she is ready Kierstan Bell behind her. The centers on the roster can take the minutes when A’ja has to rest, as few as possible. Given Kiah Stokes and Theresa Plaisance are the only centers on the roster after cuts, signs are looking good.

Starters:

Kelsey Plum: Speaking of players who should be starting. Kelsey should also be encouraged to fire away from 3 off the dribble whenever she feels comfortable. Outside of Diana Taurasi, no one in the W can bend defenses the way Plum can beyond the arc. Her improvement finishing in the paint has made her ability to shoot from 3 even more deadly, since she can better drive a hard close out.

Riquna Williams: Quietly had the best season of her career in 2021. Even in the Aces system under Laimbeer, she got up nearly 5 3PA attempts per game. That can and should go up under Hammon, to the 6 she shot in LA, or even 7. Even if her 3 point percentage dips a bit with harder attempts, teams will guard her more closely if she firing away out there.

Chelsea Gray: Gray at this point is best used as a wing who can pass like a point guard. She can guard other teams wings using her strength, and not forced to guard speedy point guards. On offense, something the Aces could try are small-small pick and rolls with Gray and Plum. If the opposing point guard switches onto Gray, let her get to work in the post. If they don’t switch, let Plum attack the advantage.

Dearica Hamby: Hamby can often take the more difficult front court matchup, even if she is giving up quite a bit of size, and she offers just enough stretch to help out Wilson. More willingness to shoot would be nice, but not necessary. Assuming health, if she still comes off the bench she should still be getting closer to 32 minutes per game, not 24 she got in 2021.

A’ja Wilson: My pick for MVP this year, because she should be continuing to improve and her raw numbers will be back up as she will be the focal point of this team. W MVP voters tend to prefer players on a top 2 team, but might as well start pushing for a player who drags a somewhat lesser roster to 3 or 4, where It hink the Aces will finish. 3 point shooting is the obvious thing Wilson could add, but passing is more important and should continue to improve. Last year was Wilson’s best passing season and this one could be even better.

Key Reserves:

Jackie Young: A 36 game player, not an 8 game player so far in her career. Jackie Young and the Aces need to try to figure out what to do with her when playoff defenses sag off of her and she stops having such a dramatic advantage in size and strength. Either play her at point in bench units with shooting around her or she needs to shoot 3s herself. Otherwise we may be on year 4 of her minutes being cut in the playoffs. Would also help see what her next contract will be, as she enters restricted free agency.

Theresa Plaisance: I subscribe to the idea that gravity is what the defense gives to an offensive player. This is a product of the actual effectiveness of a player and their willingness to shoot. More attempts at mediocre percentage will lead to more spacing than a 40% shooter who only shoots once in a blue moon. Plaisance may not be the most effective 3 point shooting big at 30%, but her willingness to fire is worth something, at nearly 8 attempts per 40 minutes. If Wilson is going to play the 4, she may an answer at the 5, though defensively that would not be ideal.

Los Angeles

Key Question:

Just how good are Liz Cambage and Chennedy Carter? Both players for different reasons are hard to place in proper tiers. Carter due to lack of playing time for ~reasons and Cambage because of playing on deep Aces teams and a possibly underperforming Wings team. I have questions about how a team with Skyler Diggins-Smith and Cambage barely made the playoffs in 2018. If Cambage is closer to top 5 than I think, this Sparks team may be able to make it far in the playoffs. If Carter would have challenged for the All-Star team, maybe this team even makes noise in the semifinals and challenged for the finals if both players play up to their considerable potential.

If Cambage is closer to 15, Tina Charles like, and Carter is more solid starter, this Sparks team could be closer to another lottery trip. Assuming health of the veterans, something that did not occur in 2021, I think this team will be closer to 4th than 9th, but the downside risk is real, given the Sparks gave up their 2023 pick to Atlanta in the Carter trade. There is a reason my first W game of the year will be Sparks at Fever. This is my most interesting team of 2022.

Starters:

Chennedy Carter: Devastating first step and the ability to finish around and through contact. Inconsistent shooter and defender, but has the tools to be good at both. Hopefully the Sparks put the ball in her hand let her get to work, since this is a team that could not score in 2022. This is a team that does not need to get cute on offense. Post ups for Cambage and high pick and rolls for Carter until other teams show they can stop it.

Kristi Toliver: Hopefully with a better roster and better health, Toliver can have a bounce back year. A back court of Carter and Toliver may not offer much defense, but Toliver is such a good fit on offense next to Carter I want to see it. Toliver can provide second side ball handling once Carter has kicked out a pass and Toliver could feast on open 3s from both Cambage and Carter.

Brittney Sykes: Teams won’t guard Sykes outside of the paint, but someone needs to play perimeter defense. While DPOY level defense is unlikely, Sykes is a good defender. Hopefully she can effectively cut when off ball and use that athleticism to finish, something that she has not been as good as one might hope.

Nneka Ogwumike: I would like to see Fisher stagger Cambage and Nneka so that both can play the vast majority of available minutes at the 5. The Sparks should try to limit as much as possible how much they play with neither Nneka nor Cambage on the floor. Nneka is such a crafty cutter and just enough of a shooter to make the pairing work, but she is clearly also this team’s second best center.

Liz Cambage: Can she be put in position to play 30+ minutes in the playoffs? And what kind of roster needs to be constructed to help her defend well enough to win a championship? Two questions to watch for this year. Keeping her minutes down in the regular season is good, but for a Cambage lead team to win in the playoffs, she needs to play more. The offense in time with Cambage can be elite, but the question is how does LA build a good enough defense moving forward. Cambage is a fine defender, but at the highest levels can be forced to guard in space in ways that is just hard for any 6’8” center.

Key Reserves:

Jasmine Walker: Is Walker, drafted in 2o21 but hurt last season, ready to be the backup stretch 4 this team could use with Nia Coffey gone? She would be able to play 4 out around either star front court player, allowing Carter to also play in even more space. Walker seemed in college to be a decent, not great athlete, and will have to have good technique to hold her own on defense.

Katie Lou Samuelson: There is a world where Samuelson has improved her defense and is able to shoot the lights out, where she ends up the starting 3 over Sykes. I don’t know that she has the strength to play the 4, but I would like to see her and Sykes together. A lineup of Carter-Toliver-Samuelson-Walker-Cambage would be fun. Might score 110 in 40 minutes and give up 100.

Minnesota Lynx

Key Questions:

Other than whether Napheesa Collier will play this season and how much, the other question is did Cheryl Reeve fail to anticipate the new salary cap system and overpay, relative to the cap, Natalia Achonwa and Aerial Powers? Achonwa was the more notable miss in free agency, but Powers has the bigger contract to live up to. The Achonwa contract likely cost them both Crystal Dangerfield and their 2021 first round pick Rennia Davis. Reeve is a great coach, but as a GM the last few years has not done as well.

Powers was the more defensible contract, but still may be overpaid relative to the cap. A back court of Powers and Kayla McBride did not have enough passing or ball handling, hence the scramble for Laysha Clarendon last year and the last minute signing of Odyssey Sims this year. But it is still a question if Powers have the size and strength to play the 3. She may, but will be interesting to watch. Reeve may have paid top dollar to two players who play the same position in McBride and Powers, who are both signed through next season also.

Starters:

Odyssey Sims: Sims, the surprise signing on 5/3 by the Lynx to presumably start at point guard, can be a decent player, though 2021 with the Dream was rough. She only sort of does the things necessary to be a point guard. She generates low efficiency shots for herself and can make the basic passes. One outlier season in 2019 with the Lynx she had an above average passing season. But coming off a year with a sub 43% TS is tough. By comparison, Jasmine Thomas has had a TS ever year since 2016 right around 50%. And Sims is not nearly the defender Thomas is.

Kayla McBride: A wonderful catch and shoot player, McBride is also a fine defender, particularly using her strength against bigger players. A tick below star level because she isn’t generally going to create shots for herself or others, she is still very effective.

Aerial Powers: A somewhat tough season in 2021, but could bounce back. Her 3 point shooting was below the 33% where it really needs to be to be a positive and her turnover rate spiked. Starting year 2 with a new point guard signed 3 days before the season and a converted 2 guard as backup and both true point guards waived from the roster is not ideal, but here is hoping.

Natalie Achonwa: Achonwa is not who I would start, I would prefer to see if Angel was ok to try out playing the 4 in a smaller lineup with Achonwa backing her up to limit Angel’s minutes. But I bet Cheryl Reeve will go with the big she signed to a large contract. Achonwa does not provide any stretch as 4, nor is she particularly adept at chasing the faster 4s in the league. But then again, she also gets overwhelmed by the bigger centers. She is a W level player, but will be curious how Reeve uses her this year with better options in Napheesa and Damiris Dantas out to start the season.

Sylvia Fowles: Enjoy her final year. The best defensive center in W history, someone who thrived both in the more interior oriented game during her early days but has been able to stay just as effective in the pace and space era by impeccable defensive positioning and understanding. Watching her stymie guards who are 15 years younger and more athletic is a joy.

Key Reserves:

Bridget Carleton: Though some of the other cuts by the Lynx were ones I do not agree with, Carleton being on the team is good. If not Angel, Carleton could also start at the 4 instead of Achonwa. Thanks to Stephen Trinkwald of the Double Down WNBA podcast for pointing out that would be worth trying.

Rachel Banham: I would not have kept Banham. While a good shooter, I don’t think she offers sufficient playmaking to be a point guard, even a backup one, nor does she offer enough on defense. I look forward to being wrong though and if she has a career year, I will enjoy every moment of it if she performs well, even if i I would have kept Crystal Dangerfield.