Dream – Five Out Basketball

Embracing the Rebuild is Working for Atlanta and Indiana. But What Comes Next?

The Atlanta Dream and Indiana Fever have made real progress in their respective rebuilds. After two years, in the case of Atlanta, and more than two in the case of Indiana, of aimless attempts to be the 7th or 8th seed without much success, both teams are set up much better to one day make a run in the playoffs.

For both Atlanta and Indiana, the key first step was the top of the 2022 draft. The Dream used their own third pick and some of the return they got for trading Chennedy Carter to trade up to select Rhyne Howard. Eighteen games in, all signs point to Rhyne Howard being good enough to at least be the second best player on a team that competes deep into the playoffs. She joins Aari McDonald in interesting young talent. McDonald will hopefully join Howard as a starter on said team, but she seems likely to at least be a good backup, as she has raised her true shooting from a below average 48% to an acceptable 56% as a sophomore.

The Fever, in turn, took NaLyssa Smith with the second pick. While Smith has not been as consistent as Howard, she has certainly looked the part of a player who could one day be a key piece on a good playoff team. The Fever also added more young talent than Atlanta alongside Smith in Emily Engstler, Queen Egbo and Destanni Henderson. If even one of those players can be a starter on a good playoff team, that is good for the Fever.

The Dream were more beset by bad luck than poor roster decision in 2021, but still had to respond to where they ended up. They were smart enough to recognize that once the relationship with Chennedy Carter was beyond salvage, they needed to recoup what they could. They received a competent point guard in Erica Wheeler and a pick that they already flipped for a potential star. New ownership made some fine choices with Dan Padover brought in from the Aces to run the front office and Tanisha Wright as coach.

The Fever, on the other hand, were undone by poor roster decisions more than bad luck. They were not young, nor good, an unfortunate combination. They picked players who were not good enough, in drafts without sure things. They overpaid, relative to the cap, for aging veterans who were not going to take the Fever anywhere. I am happy for Danielle Robinson getting paid, but signing a 32 year old point guard who doesn’t shoot 3s was a curious decision at the time and has not made more sense in hindsight. With Tamika Catchings moving on and Lin Dunn as interim manager, the approach has become much more sensible.

Indiana is already out of the playoffs, so they should be focusing on seeing what they have with the younger players on the roster. Atlanta has a more interesting conundrum in that they would be in the playoffs as the 8th seed if the season were to end today. While playoff experience is worth something, given the way the WNBA draft works with two year cumulative records, the Dream would be sacrificing the 2nd best odds at a top 2 pick for the privilege of being waxed by the Las Vegas Aces.

Losing a couple of playoff games will not help the Dream as much as Aliyah Boston, Haley Jones, or Diamond Miller would. Rhyne Howard still has work to do to show that she can be engine of a good offense. She may be better suited to using her shooting to play off someone more equipped to break down defenses. Add one more top draft pick if you are Atlanta, and then see who might be interested in signing with two top draft picks, one in Howard already an established All-Star caliber player.

Indiana will have a high draft pick in 2023. They should once again use their cap space to take on unwanted contracts from other teams, a la the Bria Hartley trade, rather than trying to sign a free agent like Brionna Jones. Jones is very good, and should earn a larger contract from someone not the Sun next year, but not so good to lead the Fever higher than a 7th seed. Indiana likely should be aiming for another decent pick even in the 2024 draft, as Indiana is less likely than Atlanta to get decent veterans to sign there unless there is already a top team in place. Caitlin Clark or Paige Bueckers would pair very nicely with NaLyssa Smith and co. Then Indiana can really be ready to contend.

2022 Season Preview 1: Atlanta, Chicago, Connecticut, Dallas.

The 2022 WNBA season is approaching. Here is part 1 of 3 of my season previews. For each team I look at one key question and then run down some things to watch for for the top 7 players on each team. The top 7 get the bulk of the minutes and drive the success of a team, and frankly are unlikely to be waived between me writing and publishing these.

Atlanta Dream:

Key Question:

Who on this team will be on the next good Atlanta Dream team? Rhyne Howard, ideally, is the one definite answer as a starter. Aari McDonald, but more likely as a backup in my opinion, and maybe Nia Coffey, who is only 26, if the rebuild goes quickly. Otherwise, the Dream have not been using their bench to stock up on young players as much as I would have liked them to. This is a team that might win some games if their veterans play well. I wonder if they play too well will they look to trade any of those veterans to both get stuff back and to increase the odds of getting Aliyah Boston?

Kia Vaughn is a fine veteran, but does this team need her leadership, with other veterans already around? The Dream signed all of their free agents to one year deals, Parker is on the books for next year from the prior front office. In time Atlanta may be a place that can get free agents, but for now they should be building through the draft and through second drafts with players who did not make their initial team. They don’t seem to feel that way outside of Rhyne, so we shall see.

Projected Starters:

Aari McDonald: While the Dream may start Erica Wheeler, they should go with the future here. If Aari is not on the trajectory to be a starter, that is important information. If she comes off the bench for most of the season, well that will also tell us something, but getting to watch McDonald play would be the more interesting way to learn. Can she defend bigger shooting guards so can Atlanta play her and Wheeler together. Can she score efficiently from, well, anywhere in the half court. 30% from 3 and 34% from 2 will likely improve, but by how much?

Tiffany Hayes: Depending on where the Dream go at the 4, this might be the most space Hayes has played in. While that is not saying much given some of the shooting starved teams she has played on in Atlanta, it would still be very fun to see a bounce back season from Hayes. A very good slasher and solid defender, if Atlanta surprisingly pushes for a playoff spot it will likely happen because Hayes has a great year. Possible, if not especially likely.

Rhyne Howard: The clear #1 prospect in my view in the most recent draft, watching Howard play with W level talent is the thing I am most looking forward to. In terms of future stardom, I am very curious to see how the Dream use her this season. Does Atlanta ask her to score in the flow off the offense, or do they have her to run a decent amount of pick and rolls and shoot off movement? The latter would be more fun, but the former understandable as she has all the tools to be a 3 and D+ wing as a rookie and grow into more in time.

Nia Coffey: Coffey shot a very good 41% from 3 in LA last year and provided impressive rim protection from an undersized wing. She would be a great fit at the 4 this season in Atlanta. She should be encouraged to shoot even more from 3 than she did in LA, as any additional spacing she can offer to Mcdonald and Howard will benefit their development.

Cheyenne Parker: A Parker-Coffey front court might not be perfect defensively, but will be able to score. Parker should both be able to be a good pick and roll partner for any of the Dream bigs, while also being able to post up any mismatches. I do hope they limit how often they ask Parker to post up similar sized centers, but in a pinch she has the skill to do so.

Key Reserves:

Erica Wheeler: Wheeler should be the primary backup for both McDonald and Hayes. A McDonald-Wheeler back court might be too small, but it is the kind of thing worth experimenting with. Dream will hope for a good 3 point shooting season, as this team does not need Wheeler dribbling the air out of the ball every possession and would benefit from her playing off ball more as a veteran leader.

Monique Billings: Her ability to generate turnovers in a high pressure defense was impressive early in the Dream season in 2021. While overmatched as a starter given she isn’t much of a threat on the offensive end outside of offensive rebounding, she should pair fairly well with either of the front court starters against bench units. If the Dream can get out in transition, that would also benefit her, so she can use her speed against slower bigs.

Chicago Sky

Key Question:

How does this team maximize the chances that the veterans, and in Azurá Stevens’ case, injury plagued starters, make it to the playoffs healthy and rested? James Wade has made the big moves for the Sky successfully, but this season might test his ability to nail the margins. No general manager hits every signing to a minimum contract, but the Sky may be relying on their’s more than most teams. While there is no one on the roster likely to end up as overmatched as Shyla Heal was in 2021, who exactly is playing back 2 and 3 is as much a mystery with the season days away as it was months ago.

Two players for the Sky to either bring back or bring in if their current backups are not good enough are Kamiah Smalls and Kitja Laksa. Smalls was waived, so of course possible that Wade and co. have decided she is not good enough, but she has shown more in her overseas performances than the players they kept. Kaela Davis is long and athletic and looks good, but she is a career 36% shooter from 2 and not a good 3 point shooter. Laksa is a dead eye shooter who may not have the defense to be a starter in the W, but would fit nicely off the bench with the Sky.

Projected Starters:

Courtney Vandersloot: Going to quote what I said last year, because nothing has really changed other than trying to win another championship: “Best point guard in the W. For the Sky to win a championship, might need to look for her own offense a bit more. Too good a shooter while also able to put pressure on at the rim to not look to score.” Given prioritization, is this the last season we see her for a bit? If so, I am ready to enjoy every minute of it.

Allie Quigley: Can the Sky save her for the playoffs again? The Sky’s difficult choices at the back end of the roster may make it harder for Wade to limit Quigley’s minutes. She was incredibly important in the playoffs, but at age 35, almost 36, needs her minutes managed.

Kahleah Copper: The next step for Copper to raise her game and become an all-WNBA level player is to play make for others. A wonderful finisher and just good enough 3 point shooter, Copper fits well next to other playmakers. If she can even incrementally increase her playmaking, maybe run a few pick and rolls and get open shots for Allie Quigley, that would make the Sky even harder to guard.

Candace Parker: How much does she have left? Can she make it to the playoffs healthy? The Sky were two teams in 2021. A mediocre team without Parker and a championship caliber team with her. Similar to Quigley, the Sky’s loss of some depth might make it harder to sit her, but the Sky should be willing to lose some regular season games to hopefully keep her healthy and rested. My favorite part of her playoff run was her brilliance as a help defender who was able to muck up other teams’ offense when they played total non-shooters.

Azurá Stevens: Stevens being healthy for the playoff run and able to play fairly heavy minutes was key for the Sky. Knock on wood for another relatively healthy season. Stevens is valuable for her ability to guard bigger posts while on offense providing some shooting and ability to attack a closeout. She and the Sky will benefit from her continuing to improve her ability to finish plays.

Key Reserves:

Emma Meesseman: Meesseman has a history of coming off the bench and finishing games so may do the same. It may be matchup driven because for teams that don’t have Liz Cambage or Sylvia Fowles, a Meesseman-Parker front court might make sense, with Stevens in to guard the bigger centers. If she is a backup, Meesseman can shoot all the midrange 2s she wants as she keeps bench units afloat on offense. As a starter though, hopefully she will be a bit more modern in her approach and space the floor better.

Julie Allemand: The French league ends so late it is unclear when Allemand will come over, but the Sky should be hoping for sooner rather than later. She is the most proven of the backup guards and even wings for the Sky. If either Quigley or Vandersloot need to miss time, Allemand would be as good a replacement as possible. A weaker defender than either, she is a reasonable facsimile on offense for either Vanderquig. Not the movement shooter Quigley is nor does she put pressure on the rim like Vandersloot, but she is a good shooter and passer.

Connecticut Sun

Key Question:

How do the Sun fix their half court offensive issues in the playoffs? This team has the talent and chemistry, pun intended, to be a top 2 team in the regular season again. The next step is to figure out how to score against high level opponents in the playoffs. Defensively 5 out offenses provide some challenge to the Sun, but they have the personal, especially with Alyssa Thomas back healthy, to defend that style.

Shooting guard is the one position that could be up for adjustments for the Sun. As I mention below in my section on Natisha Hiedeman, Curt Miller may need to sacrifice defense for some offensive burst from his guards. Either that or Jonquel Jones improves her midrange game to the point she can be a reliable option there. The fit of DeWanna Bonner and Alyssa Thomas on offense is going to be somewhat clunky against the best defenses given neither shoots from 3, either at all or well, so the Sun have to find solutions around that.

Projected Starters:

Jasmine Thomas: The best defensive guard in the W, can the Sun make up for her offensive limitations to win a championship? Functionally a 3 and D point guard, the Sun will need to find other places to generate offense in the half court against the best of the best. Thomas improving her shooting, particularly off the dribble, would also be helpful for the Sun.

Courtney Williams: 3>2. If the shot clock is running down or if it is the best shot possible, then a Williams midrange shot is much better than nothing. But the Sun and Williams should be trying for better where possible. But if she wants to play her same game, it might be time for Natisha Hiedeman to play with her fiance and for Williams to prop up bench units on offense.

DeWanna Bonner: To paraphrase Draymond Green, Bonner may be a 36 game player, not an 8 game player. Her high 3 point attempt rates cause teams to guard her in the regular season, but her inability to shoot hurts in the playoffs. Her foul drawing also dips in the playoffs against the best defenders and best refs. A very fun player in the regular season, but the playoffs await.

Alyssa Thomas: An incredibly fun player who is as good as one can get without shooting 3s. You name a skill a big wing should have other than shooting and she has it. Passing, ball handling, defense, rebounding all of it.

Jonquel Jones: A deserving MVP in 2021, the next step for her is the inverse of Courtney Williams in that Jones is very good at seeking out either 3s or attempts at the rim, but does not have as good an in between game. A reliable way to generate decent midrange jump shots in the playoffs would be a boon to both Jones and the Sun, when teams load up to stop her.

Key Reserves:

Brionna Jones: Overqualified as a backup center, she plays well next to either Thomas or Jones. Jones is the best possible development outcome for the undersized center who can’t shoot and aren’t particularly fast, she should be studied by all other such players with hopes of making it in the W.

Natisha Hiedeman: What does Hiedeman need to do to earn Kurt Miller’s trust in the playoffs? She isn’t as good at defense as the other options, but she isn’t a traffic cone either. And on offense, she is the only player on the team, except maybe Nia Clouden, who will take 3s off the dribble. She could improve her finishing and getting to the rim, but you aren’t getting those from Thomas or Williams either.

Dallas Wings:

Key Question

Why such a large contract for Arike Ogunbowale? Per herhoopstats, Arike will be making the supermax starting in 2023 for 3 seasons. Depending on a few free agents next year, she will be one of roughly 5 or so players who make that super max contract. More in her section below, but I am not convinced that paying Arike that high a percentage of the cap is sensible, especially given they have more young players coming off of rookie deals soon. Satou Sabally will likely get the same salary for the 2024 season and beyond. Dallas is quickly going to be priced into their team, so they should be seeing if this is a team that can go as far as they want to.

Money matters in a hard capped league. Ask Phoenix or Connecticut how it goes with 3 super max contracts, trying to churn the end of the roster. I have my concerns that Arike will be so good as to justify such a contract, given she is being paid along the lines of Jewell Loyd and Diana Taurasi. Will Dallas be able to match if Marina Mabrey gets a large offer? Dallas will also have to pay Teaira McCowan, one reason I did not like that trade for them.

Starters:

Arike Ogunbowale: The improved 3 point shooting and volume was good. But unfortunately, nothing else really improved, except for the contract. 39% from 2 from such a high usage player is bad. The defense was among the worst for starters in the league. 3.3 assists was not good enough, especially given her assist to turnover ratio has been the exact same in all four years. And the quality of pass does not seem to be going up, too many drives into 3 defenders and not a good kick out.

Marina Mabrey: Likely not a star, as she does not have the first step or handle to get to the rim and appears to be a good 3 point shooter, not a great, so unlikely to be Diana Taurasi from deep. But Mabrey should be starting for this team over their bevy of point guards. Not a lock down defender, but she competes and can continue to improve, especially against bigger players who can’t drive right past her.

Allisha Gray: A weird season last year including coach Vicki Johnson suggesting Gray forgot how to play 5 on 5, but she should be starting for this team. The only player has shown the ability to both shoot 3s and defend at a high level. Without playmaking improvement similar to Kahleah Copper she isn’t a star. If Dallas won’t start her, they should

Satou Sabally: If the Wings win a championship with this core, it will be because Satou becomes a top 3 player in this league. Her assist numbers aren’t particularly impressive, but her ability to whip passes to the corner with either hand is. A fully healthy season from her, with more consistent defense, is how this Wings team makes it to the next level. WHile she should not start at center, the best playoff version of the Wings likely involved her playing the 5 in heavy doses.

Teaira McCowan: If Bella Alarie had not opted out of the season, she would have been my choice for starter. But I bet McCowan would have started anyways, given the Wings traded for her. McCowan is definitely a W level backup center given how dominant she can be on the offensive end. Great size, decent hands and draws lots of fouls. The defensive end is where the questions lie and we will get a season to see if outside of the mess of Indiana whether McCowan can be the anchor of a league average defense.

Key Reserves

Charli Collier: The #1 pick from 2021 started 18 obligatory games as the #1 pick, but eventually the team realized to win they needed to play her less. Rebounds fairly well, but still unclear what else she does at a starting player level. Some evidence of stretch to the 3 point line and improvement defending in space would be welcome.

Veronica Burton: The theory with the Burton pick makes sense. A good defender who can play next to Arike or Marina and take the more difficult assignment. But I did not have her as a first round pick because of the questions on offense. But that means playing off ball. Can she shoot? Will teams guard her out there? Does she have the handle and athleticism to get to the paint when she has the ball?

2021 Season Preview: Atlanta, Chicago, and Connecticut

The 2021 season is finally upon us. For this year’s previews, I am going to focus on who I project as 8 of the teams’ top players for each team and then 2 big questions I have about the team this upcoming season. I am going to not include European players who may come over late in the season, given the unknowns about their commitments. Each week will cover 3 teams.

Atlanta Dream:

Projected Starters:

Chennedy Carter: The difference between Carte who is a good starter and Carter who is the best point guard in the league is her shooting from 3. Both off the dribble and catch and shoot. This is especially true as the Dream continue to surround her with other ball dominant guards. She shot 37.5% on relatively few attempts last season, so a promising start.

Courtney Williams: Williams likely is who she is. A good, if not great, starter. This will likely not be the year she shoots more 3s and fewer long 2s, but it would be nice. She can play off ball, but stepping into long 2s is an inefficient way to play without the ball in one’s hands.

Tiffany Hayes: Hayes is a good starter. But benching one of Hayes or Williams and letting them run the second unit in favor of Shekinna Stricklen might make sense. Stricklen is not as good a player as them, but she can shoot open 3s and is not a player who can create shots even against second units. Hayes might be the choice, given she is more dependent on having the ball than Williams.

Cheyenne Parker: Asking her to be the starting power forward and stretch big is asking quite a bit. While she showed some stretch last season, she only shot 1.6 3s per game. However, this team does not seem to have a better option at the 4 that would allow Parker to play the center. Something for them to address going forward.

Elizabeth Williams: A solid starting center. All-defense first team was a bit much last season, but ideally she can keep providing solid rim protection and a good pick and roll partner for Chennedy Carter.

Key Reserves:

Aari McDonald: What level of shooter are we getting in the W. And she struggles with her shot, how does she find minutes in a crowded back court? First year struggles are to be expected for most young point guards, but still important questions to monitor.

Shekinna Stricklen: Stricklen struggled last season but she is the only player on this entire team who is a proven plus shooter. She was brought in for a reason and should earn a chance to show what she can do.

Tianna Hawkins: A very solid backup big. If she can get her shooting on track could finish some games depending on the matchup. This team can almost play 5 out with a front line of her and Parker and really space the floor for Carter and Hayes.

2 Key questions:

Why so many ball dominant guards? I mentioned it above, but to reiterate, there are diminishing returns to players whose best attribute is creating with the ball in their hands. The opposite of shooting, which has no diminishing returns, as shooters can be just as valuable off ball as they are on. So the big question will be who on this team can shoot the open shots their talented guards create.

Who is their 4 of the future? Cheyenne Parker can play there temporarily, but her best position is as a center. This team has guards and centers, but it is very unclear who exactly is supposed to guard the Napheesa Collier’s of the world. She seems too big and/or too fast for this team. To be fair, Collier does that to most teams. But it is a question worth trying to answer. That is likely the next position to try to upgrade. Maybe if the team disappoints, Rhyne Howard or NaLyssa Smith will be available in next year’s draft.

Chicago Sky

Projected Starters:

Courtney Vandersloot: Best point guard in the W. For the Sky to win a championship, might need to look for her own offense more. Too good a shooter while also able to put pressure on at the rim to not look to score.

Allie Quigley: Offensively is still be among the best shooters in the W, but with the improvements of Kahleah Copper, will be interesting to see who finishes big games. Competes on defense, but is limited there compared so other options the Sky has.

Diamond DeShields: After a lost year to injury in 2020, has the tools to be one of the 2 or 3 best small forwards in the league. Particularly interested to see her ability to create offense for others as well as herself and improve on her even assist to turnover ratio.

Candace Parker: Does Wade stagger Parker and Vandersloot’s minutes to have someone who can create offense on the floor at all times? While they should be a good tandem, they can also play separately and hopefully mitigate the issues the Sky have faced without Vandersloot on the floor.

Azurá Stevens: A healthy season for Stevens would be wonderful. If she can force teams to guard her at the three point line, this Sky offense may be close to unguardable.

Key Reserves:

Kahleah Copper: What does she need to do to be a starter on this team? Hard to imagine either Quigley or DeShields coming off the bench, but Copper played really well last year. Copper is enough taller and more athletic than Quigley, it might make sense to start her in some match ups.

Gabby Williams: What is her position? Entering a contract year, some clarity would help her market. Shows abroad that with the ball in her hands is her best role, but so far has not justified that much responsibility in her time in the W.

Shyla Heal: Heal was one of the few player selections in the draft that made me look smart, as I had her about where she was drafted. I am a bit concerned at her youth and the role she is stepping into. Back up point guard at 19 on a team with championship goals is asking a lot. But Heal is nothing if not confident.

2 Key Questions:

Who finishes games? The Sky have done a good job putting together a flexible team with quite a few options. Vandersloot and Parker have to be on the court, but other than them, this seems like a team that can mix and match based on who is playing well and the opposing team. Wade is a good coach but even good coaches can prove to be stubborn in the playoffs. This is a team with the ability to play different styles and should take advantage of that.

Now or never with Candace Parker not getting any younger. Are there any in season trades to put this team closer to a championship, even on the margins. Gabby Williams is a restricted free agent and there have already been rumors of her being moved. A sign and trade after the season would be fine, but worth exploring something in season too.

Connecticut Sun

Projected Starters:

Jasmine Thomas: Continues to slowly but surely add to her offensive game. This team will need her to be a bit more aggressive offensively to be respectable without Alyssa Thomas.

Briann January: Defensively January put on a clinic in the playoffs with the Sun last year. When she is locked in, she is as fun to watch on that end as any guard in the league. Offensively, she is fine, but does have her limitations.

DeWanna Bonner: Her 3 point attempts cause teams to guard her in the regular season, but her inability to shoot hurts in the playoffs. 25% from 3 is tough to overcome even given her well rounded skill set. Any improvement in that area is maybe not likely, but would be beneficial for a team looking to compete next year with a healthy Alyssa Thomas.

Kaila Charles: The least secure of the projected starters, can she match up with other 3s and 4s in the W? 37% from 3 on limited attempts from 3 is promising, especially combined with her good size and athleticism. Good year for her to really show what she can do.

Jonquel Jones: My pick for best player who only plays center in the W, especially if she can continue to shoot in the high 30s from 3. Though this is a year she my end up playing some 4, given injuries and limited bench options. Entering her age 27 season, should be able to contend for first team All-WNBA center. Liz Cambage is great, but Jones should be able to give her a run for the spot.

Key Reserves:

Brionna Jones: If Charles does not start, will likely be Jones. Jones outplayed my expectations in 2020, but playing two centers might be tough sledding in the more spaced out W each year.

Natisha Hideman: Solid backup point guard in the limited minutes Jasmine Thomas does not play. This is the year to show if there is anything more than that. Improving on her 35% from 2 is key to that.

DiJonai Carrington: Not a great sign when a player does not start for their college team and shot under 30% from 3 for her college career, but will get the opportunity to show what she can do on a thin team at the guard/wing position.

2 Key Questions:

Are any of the young guards on this team going to challenge Briann January? For as good as January is defensively, this Sun team needs more help on offense than they do defense. The inability to create offense hurt them in the series against the Aces.

Jonquel Jones is an unrestricted free agent next year. Can this team pay her the super max? And if they do, they will need to hit on a couple of the young players as this is only going to become even more of an experiment in stars and young players. Beatrice Mompromier was a great pickup last year after being cut by the Sparks, can the Sun do that again?

MVP, All-WNBA first and second team, MIP Player, and 6th Women of the Year.

The level of play in the bubble was everything WNBA fans could have hoped for. Here are my awards, if I had a vote, which of course I do not. This post will cover ALL-WNBA, Most Improved Player, and 6th Women of the Year. Defensive Player of the Year, All-Defense teams and Rookie awards to come Sunday. Only Dearica Hamby has clearly run away with an award, so it will be especially interesting this year who the actual voters end up awarding.

MVP:

Breanna Stewart:

A’ja Wilson had a wonderful season, but Stewart was just a bit more impactful on the court this year. She was the best defensive player on the leading defense in the league. To be fair, she did get a lot of help from good defenders up and down the Storm roster, but with Natasha Howard scuffling compared to her normal standards to start the season, Stewart has been great all season. Her passing and shooting provided needed variety to a Storm team that has dealt with injuries. Stewart led or was very near the top in whichever all in one stat one looked at, from pipm, to WARP, to win shares, to player impact estimate. These all in one stats are imperfect, but I do think they are capturing something about how good Stewart has been when they all point in the same direction.

A’ja Wilson

A’ja Wilson was great this year. She very well might win MVP, and that would be a reasonable choice. It will be interesting to see what happens next year when Liz Cambage comes back, because until Wilson is willing or able to shoot 3s, she is at her best as a center. Cambage and Wilson can play together, but it may not be optimal usage of them. Defensively, Wilson has been a good on ball defender since she came into the WNBA, even switched onto guards and wings, but this year she really improved her help defense. She anchored the second best defense in the WNBA, and while her teammates are all good defenders, none are on the level of Alysha Clark or Natasha Howard, except possibly Angel McCoughtry, but she played far fewer minutes than either Clark or Howard.

Candace Parker

This is the toughest choice when it comes to MVP. Napheesa Collier has played extremely well, and at 2 positions where it is tough to find contributions, at 3 or 4. But she is just a bit behind Parker and for whatever reason the Lynx do not run their offense through her the way the Sparks can with Parker.

Courtney Vandersloot was excellent as usual. But a guard to compete for MVP needs to do it on the offensive end because they just do not impact defense to the same degree as the forwards who tend to dominate MVP voting. Vandersloot of course led the leagues in assists, and nearly shot 50/40/90, but her attempts from 3 were not as high as one might want from such a good shooter, she took the same amount of 3s per game as Jasmine Thomas. Diana Taurasi is the weakest defender of the potential MVP candidates, but her offensive explosion helped the Mercury to fourth place without Brittney Griner.

But Candace Parker has been the most impactful. Parker has been able to shift between the 4 and the 5 as needed. Chelsea Gray has been good, but not her best self, as she has struggled shooting a bit. Nneka Ogwumike has been effective when she has played, but has missed time. Parker’s 3 point shooting and passing has been key. Kristine Anigwe and Marie Gulich have improved as 2nd year players tend to, but both were among the least effective players in the WNBA last year and both have been helped immensely by playing next to Parker. While talk of defensive player of the year is a bit much, Parker is tall, still mobile, and knows where to be.

All-WNBA First team:

My understanding is the WNBA asks voters to keep to traditional positions. While I would prefer to simply make a list with the 5 best players regardless of position, I slot players in positions they at least spent some of the year playing.

First team:

Center: Candace Parker

Forward: A’ja Wilson

Forward: Breanna Stewart

Guard: Diana Taurasi

I briefly mentioned Taurasi, but it’s worth emphasizing that she has been the single most effective offensive force in the WNBA this year, at age 38. That is incredible. She is taking 9.2 3s per game, with the next closest player who played more than 10 games being Kelsey Mitchell at 6.5. Taurasi shoots from deeper than anyone else in the WNBA, off the dribble, in a way that warps defenses like no other player. I limit my WNBA – NBA comparisons, but there’s a reason Taurasi has said that “Steph Curry highlights are just WNBA highlights.” No one else does it like Taurasi or Curry, though I am excited for Kelsey Mitchell, Sabrina Ionescu and other up and coming guards who clearly take inspiration from the shooters before them. What a gift to get yet another great year from Diana Taurasi.

Guard: Courtney Vandersloot

The most underrated aspect of Vandersloot’s game might be her defense. There are limits to how much the Sky can crossmatch her, as she can get overwhelmed physically by bigger guards and wings like Chelsea Gray, but there’s a reason James Wade will at key moments have Vandersloot switch assignments with Allie Quigley and take the more dangerous guard. She’s not quite on the level of Jasmine Thomas or Jordin Canada, but she is a good athlete, and competes hard.

2nd team All-WNBA:

I’m staying away from anyone who played significant minutes at center for my second team, as it is challenging to find someone more deserving than the plethora of forwards this year. Swapping Collier for Parker and sliding Wilson to 1st team center is tempting just to make my lineups work, but probably not worth it.

Forward: Napheesa Collier

Sometimes it is hard to remember that Collier is only in her second year. She plays like a seasoned vet, one who handled a huge load for the Lynx, especially after Fowles went down. She led the WNBA in minutes, and maintained her energy throughout. Her versatility is key to the Lynx success. Her three point shooting seems real which allows her to play the 3, and her off ball defense when she is at the 4 and even occasionally a small ball 5 is impressive for any level of experience, but especially for a second year player. She has struggled a bit lately guarding the bigger forwards, namely A’ja Wilson and Breanna Stewart.

The next step in her development is for the offense to run through her more, particularly in key moments. When will Cheryl Reeve have her take more direct responsibility for the offense, as wings with her skill set tend to? They have the shooting to run plays through her, have her run pick and rolls as both ball handler and screener, and it would raise Collier’s ceiling if it could be incorporated. Whether Reeve is simply reluctant to move towards a less democratic system, or Collier needs to improve her handle and passing, or both, that seems like an area the Lynx could look to work on.

Forward: Angel McCoughtry:

On a per minute basis, McCoughtry had a good argument for first team over Candace Parker (and moving Wilson to center) or being slotted in as a guard over Taurasi. Getting to watch McCoughtry play so well has been wonderful. She did only play 411 minutes, compared to 521 for Taurasi and 600+ for her other competition. Still, she was so impactful in those minutes I am fine putting her on 2nd team. The low minutes for Mccoughtry is a good sign for the Aces playoff hopes, as reporting has indicated the Aces will try to increase her workload closer to 30 minutes per game than 20, which will only make the Aces better, assuming she is able to handle the increased load for the playoffs.

Forward: DeWanna Bonner:

I stand by my piece on the Sun and the awkward fit offensively between Bonner and Alyssa Thomas. But even at the time I wrote the piece, when the Sun were 0-5, it was clear they were a better team than that. Briann January returning and Jasmine Thomas shooting more have helped. And for all that Bonner and Thomas cause spacing issues on offense, they are so hard to score against. They can both guard multiple positions, switch any pick and rolls, and are good at generating turnovers without unnecessary gambling. Bonner cooled off from 3 after a hot start, but she had her usual impact with her passing, ability to draw fouls, and rebound well for her position.

Guard: Alysha Clark

This is a bit of a cheat, as Clark mostly plays small forward. But she is often tasked with guarding the other team’s best player, including guards, whether that be Chelsea Gray, Kelsey Mitchell, or Arike Ogunbowale. They also will sometimes guard her, and she is good at using her post skills to score down low a couple of times a game. She is also an unusual choice for the all-wnba team, because of how low usage she is, she either passes or shoots immediately when she gets the ball. She can do basically everything one wants from a modern guard/ wing, except for dribble. Which admittedly is a big part of basketball. But she is so good as the perfect role player, and her ability to be impactful off-ball helps her more ball dominant co-stars thrive, that she has earned this spot.

Guard: Arike Ogunbowale

Advanced stats are really down on her defense, and that hurts her when if one relies on those. But the Wings as a whole are a poor defensive team, and it’s hard to pin that solely on Ogunbowale. Sure, she could stand to improve her defense, but she’s not a complete mess there. Offensively though, Ogunbowale took a step forward. Skylar Diggins-Smith and Jewell Loyd also have good arguments for this spot. Ogunbowale is not as efficient as SDS or Loyd, but she is the main focus of opposing defenses night after night, unlike those other two. She is second in the league in usage and still manages to be reasonably efficient. Loyd is the best defender of the group, but even though the Storm were the best team in the regular season, they were not three players on All-WNBA team good.

Most Improved Player

I’m not a huge fan of this award, as it is the award with the least clear standards. More clarity on the criteria would be nice. But for me, I don’t consider second year players, as they all tend to improve, as they should. I also prioritize players who are playing similar amounts in a similar role, but simply doing it much better. So Kaleah Copper had a good year, but she was pretty good last year. The big improvement she made was that Diamond DeShields was hurt this year, so Copper played more.

Betnijah Laney

Laney went from playing 26 minutes per game for the Fever, who cut her, to playing 33 minutes for the Dream, and improving offensively in basically every category one can improve in. Massive improvements like hers can be flukey, but the fact that her shooting splits went up in basically every category gives me some hope that this is repeatable. Going from 36/30/68 in 2019 to 48/40/85 in 2020 on significantly more attempts in the fifth year of a player’s career simply does not happen. What a great year for her.

Myisha Hines-Allen

Hines-Allen’s improvement was somewhat just that she went from being buried on the Mystics bench behind two of the best players in the world to starting, but she still took her opportunity and ran with it. Her shooting numbers went up and she showed off a more versatile game than she had before, at least in the WNBA. She is going to among the most interesting players to watch over the next couple of seasons, as 25 year old players with her skillset simply do not become available very often in the WNBA, the Mystics are unable to resign her.

6th Women of the Year

Dearica Hamby

Hamby winning this seems like violating the spirit of the award, as Hamby was a starter for all intents and purposes. She played the 25th most minutes in the league. She was second on her own team. Not to take anything away from Hamby, but on most teams she’s a starter. Still, she is clearly the best player who came off the bench in the bubble. She is a key reason the Aces were so successful this year as she is effective next to Wilson or Carolyn Swords. While she did not shoot very many 3s, her diligent work to expand her range helped the Aces manufacture just enough spacing. She can guard the toughest matchups from 3-5 and hold her own switched onto quicker guards, if forced to.

Honorable mention: Riquana Williams, Jackie Young, and Sami Whitcomb.

Looking Forward: The Atlanta Dream’s Forwards

The Atlanta Dream have had as tough a 2020 season as any team not named the Washington Mystics when it comes to opt outs, injuries, and players coming back after testing positive for covid-19. Tiffany Hayes and Renee Montgomery opted out, Glory Johnson, Courtney Williams, and Kalani Brown all joined the team late and have needed time to get back into shape and in tune with their teammates, and Chennedy Carter has missed time with an ankle injury.

This has left Nicki Collen having to play some lineups she probably was not planning on playing coming into the year. Notably, Monique Billings at the power forward spot. Billings does bring some positives to the Dream. She is a good offensive rebounder, she is able to outrun opposing bigs in transition, and can sometimes beat opposing bigs off the dribble using her speed.

However, Monique Billings’ lack of any kind of shooting also highlights some of the ways the WNBA is changing to emphasize shooting. Simply put, it is very hard to craft a top 6, so top half of the WNBA, league offense while playing two front court players who can not shoot 3s. Billings spends much of the game playing next to the Dream’s center, Elizabeth Williams, who also does not shoot 3s.

The obvious counter to the need for spacing is the Las Vegas Aces. A team that shoots far fewer threes than any other team, but as of 8/31 is 2nd in offensive rating, per wnba.com. However, the Aces actually manage to have better spacing than one might think, by where they station their players.

In the Aces best lineups, Dearica Hamby plays the 4 on offense. While Hamby is only attempting 1.5 3s per game this year, she will stand behind the 3 point line and teams will at least somewhat guard her. This allows the Aces to give just enough spacing to A’ja Wilson and whoever else to attack inside. McCoughtry will similarly stand at the three, and take them sometimes. Both are also excellent cutters and better post up threats than Billings, which helps.

Something to watch for in the playoffs is how teams guard the Jackie Young, Angel McCoughtry, Dearica Hamby trio, as teams will often be more extreme in ignoring non-threatening shooters in the playoffs when they have time to focus on a single opponent. The benefit the Aces have is all 3 of those players can attack and make plays off the dribble, which makes up for some of those spacing issues.

Back to the Dream. Even when Monique Billings puts up decent numbers herself, when she is playing next to Elizabeth Williams, she tends to make it harder for her teammates to succeed. A big question the Dream should answer going forward is who is going to be their power forward of the future.

Of course playing Billings next to a stretch 5 who can shoot 3s might work, but there are 2 of those currently in the WNBA, Stefanie Dolson and Jonquel Jones. I guess 3 if you include Natasha Howard, who occasionally hits her 3s. While that would be great, figuring out a better solution for who plays 4 seems more likely..

This play against the Minnesota Lynx is a good example of the drawbacks of two non-shooters in the front court. On the box score, this play is recorded as a turnover by Betnijah Laney. However, the play breaks down largely because of how Napheesa Collier is able to completely ignore Monique Billings. Watch where Collier goes and where Billings goes.

Atlanta Dream pick and roll. Leads to steal for Minnesota Lynx.

The play is a pick and roll with Elizabeth Williams screening for Betnijah Laney. Right off the bat, Damiris Dantas, who is guarding Williams, knows she can double team Laney hard, because Collier is right behind her to pick up the rolling Williams.

Then, when Laney stops to look for someone to pass to out of the double team, all she sees is Billings running right at her. That might be the best pass, but it’s understandable why Laney tries for something riskier. Billings isn’t likely to make a shot from long 2, and if she tries to drive, Dantas and Collier are there to cover her, since Elizabeth Williams is still under the basket.

This is why willingness to shoot 3s can matter, even when the outcome is not particularly good. If Glory Johnson had been with the Dream from the beginning, she might have gotten the starting nod at the 4. And while Johnson is by no means a knock down 3 point shooter, a career 31% 3 point shooter, she is at least willing to stand behind the three point line and let it fly when open.

Especially in the regular season, opposing teams tend to guard players who let it fly, even when the percentages say they could back off. DeWanna Bonner has benefited from this tendency for years. Letting Bonner shoot a 3 is about as good an outcome as one could hope against the Sun, but teams still guard her out on the perimeter, even though she is below 30% from 3 for her career.

Monique Billings has flirted with shooting 3s a couple of times this season. One avenue to improvement would be for her to add that to her game. But the Dream should be making plans as if Billings is best off as a smaller 5 off the bench, who can use her quickness to outrun opposing bigs. Can Betnijah Laney give them minutes at the 4? All questions to keep an eye out for over the final 7 games of the 2020 season and into the offseason.

The Dream have found some good pieces this year, even in a frustrating season in terms of wins and losses. Betnijah Laney is most likely going to win Most Improved Player of the year and Chennedy Carter has looked at times like a future superstar. Courtney Williams is rounding into shape and looks like the player the Dream signed. Shekinna Stricklen is still an excellent role player. Reinforcements from Tiffany Hayes and Renee Montgomery will hopefully be coming. How this team handles the forward position is going to be key to the next few years for the Atlanta Dream.

WNBA Awards So Far: MVP, Rookie of the Year and more

We are at the 40% mark of the 2020 WNBA season, with each team having played 9 games. To get a sense for where we are at in this season, here are my picks for a few of the awards if the season ended today. Here are my picks for MVP, rookie of the year, defensive player of the year, and most improved player

MVP:

1. Breanna Stewart

Stewart is averaging 19 points, 8 rebounds, 3.5 assists, on 61% true shooting. She is averaging 2 steals and 1.3 blocks. Even with Sue Bird missing a few games this Storm team has not missed a beat. Stewart has been the best player in the league. I would not rely on a single advanced stat to prove Stewart’s case, but when she leads in PIPM, win shares, and is in the top 3 in the WNBA’s player impact estimate, it helps make the case.

Her versatility is key to the Storm. She can effectively play the point guard on offense when the team is short handed, while still providing above average rim protection on the defensive end. Good luck having your power forward try to run the offense out of the high post. Damiras Dantas had the ball stripped multiple times by Stewart. She is a key part of the Storm’s trapping scheme, with her speed and long arms.

The big wing who can provide some rim protection while also offering shot creation on the other end is the most valuable type of player in modern basketball. With Elena Delle Donne and Maya Moore sitting out, Breanna Stewart is the best version of this player in the WNBA.

2. Sylvia Fowles

Fowles does not have the shot creation burden that other top MVP candidates do, and that in some ways can hamstring the Lynx. The flip side, however, is the Lynx can afford to play more limited defensive players around Fowles and still end up with a top defense. Crystal Dangerfield is 5’5”, if that. Dantas, Napheesa Collier, and Lexie Brown know where to be, but none are shut down defenders at this point. It is mostly because of Fowles that the Lynx are top 4, and were top 2 before Fowles missed a couple of games, in defense. In particular, her ability to combine being 6’6” near the basket and effectively defend in space makes her the front runner for DPOY.

While it may no longer be the most efficient play to throw the ball into Fowles when she is guarded by a decent post defender, she is still very effective in the pick and roll as a screener. She also will punish any switches, such that teams have to fight to get through her screens, leaving space for Dangerfield and Brown to excel. The one knock is she does not pass, with a negative assist to turnover ratio. Passing is not a necessary skill for a center like Fowles, but it does limit how she can be used a bit, along with her lack of shooting. Hopefully her calf injury is not too serious and we get to see more of Fowles this season soon.

3. A’ja Wilson

Apologies to Candace Parker, who I had penciled in here before looking closely at both players. Either one would be a fair choice here. Wilson has been a dominant scorer in the face of double and triple teams this year. She is third in the WNBA in usage among starters who have played 7 games, behind two ball dominant guards in Chennedy Carter and Arike Ogunbuwale. She has managed a TS of 55%, even though she has yet to shoot a 3 this season. That is a middling efficiency number, but given how starved the Aces are of shooting and Wilson’s lack of a 3 point shot herself, it’s frankly amazing she has been even that effective.

Defensively, Wilson is not as airtight as a help defender as one would like from someone with her physical gifts. However, she is a very good on ball defender both in the post and when switched onto smaller players. She has been a key cog in one of the best defensive teams in the league this year.

The main area in which Candace Parker is leaps and bounds ahead of Wilson is passing. Parker is a great passer, whereas Wilson has an assist to turnover ratio below 1. One day hopefully we will see Wilson play with more than 1 shooter in a modern offense, because that would give us a more accurate read on her passing. As it is, the few times she does pass, she is passing to players close to her who can’t shoot.

Others Considered:

As mentioned, Candace Parker and A’ja Wilson are basically a coin flip at this point. I went with Wilson because the Aces have been slightly more successful, with a better net rating, but it has been great seeing Parker be so effective. She also provides more spacing than Wilson, allowing for LA to play a wider variety of bigs successfully.

Angel McCoughtry stands out in advanced stats. I’m not sure the rest of the Aces are so limited to justify 2 MVP candidates, but she has been very good. Still a bruising force slashing to the basket, and she is even canning just enough threes to force teams to at least somewhat guard her out there, which is great for Vegas.

Rookie of the Year:

This year the rookie of the year race looks like it’s going to be somewhat a battle over how to define best. In particular, how to balance a player who plays a lot of minutes for a bad team, and puts up ok numbers, vs. a player who puts up excellent stats on a good team, but only plays limited minutes. The Chennedy Carter vs. Ezi Magbegor conundrum, if you will. For now, I value contributing in large minutes at an ok level.

1. Chennedy Carter

Carter has been as advertised on offense. Her ability to get to the rim is already among the best in the WNBA. She is shooting it better than expected, 42% from 3 on 2.4 attempts per game and 88% from the free throw line. Her turnover rate is high, but paradoxically that is a good sign for a young point guard, as that generally improves with experience. Guard is the toughest position to play for young players, and she is already excellent.

Chennedy Carter’s defense has been poor, which drags down her rating in advanced stats like pipm that look at defense. However, her team is the worst defensive team in the league and it is hard to pin the blame for their struggles on that end on her. Rookies are generally bad at defense, and point guards have more limited impact than bigs on defense anyways. Here is hoping Carter can come back and play more this year, as she is currently out with an ankle injury.

2. Julie Allemand

Julie Allemand will not continue to shoot 56% from 3, or lead the league in TS% at 70. However, even with some regression to the mean, she will likely still be a plus shooter. She is a good passer, who while she has had some befuddling turnovers, is still sporting an assist to turnover ratio of 2.0, second to Tyasha Harris among the rookie crop of point guards.

Defensively she struggles against bigger guards, but has held her own against other point guards, and has even turned in some highlight blocks. The Fever struggle on defense, but that is more on their bigs and wings than on Allemand.

3. Crystal Dangerfield

Crystal Dangerfield is a rookie playing nearly 30 minutes per game for a team that is currently tied for third in the standings. Her numbers do not stand out, but rather she has simply been solid across the board. For a rookie point guard on a good team, that is impressive. She even has room to grow, as I bet that her 3 point percentage of 31% will go up as the season goes on. She was an excellent shooter in college.

Her height is always going to be an issue on defense, but she competes hard on that end and has not been the negative that some expected so far. That will likely change in the playoffs, when teams have the time to focus on exploiting matchups, but for the regular season, she has been very good.

Others considered:

Satou Sabally still looks like she could be the best player from this draft, but her shooting has been so bad that she is not on this list at the moment. 35% from 2 and 15% from 3 just does not cut it. She has moments of defensive brilliance, but as with many rookie wings and bigs, is still learning the nuances of pick and roll defense.

Ezi Magbegor and Tyasha Harris are putting up the best numbers in smaller minutes. Magbegor is shooting 67% from the field and has earned the first off the bench minutes as a big on the best team in the league. She just does not play that much, and benefits from consistently being surrounded by excellent teammates.

I have no idea why Harris is not playing more, it’s like Moriah Jefferson is killing it. Harris has a ridiculous assist-turnover ratio of 3.88 and is shooting 43% from 3. She’s bigger than Jefferson and can guard a couple of positions. She definitely could leap into the top 3, if given more playing time.

DPOY:

Sylvia Fowles. She is simply the player on one of the best defenses in the league who is crucial to that defense. The team falls apart defensively without her. Breanna Stewart also has an argument, but she is surrounded by Natasha Howard and Alysha Clark, who are all first team all-defense caliber players. If Bill Laimbeer started Hamby, which he should, and played her 30+ minutes, she might have a case as well, given her versatility on defense between the 3, 4 and 5.

Most Improved player:

This is not my favorite category, as even compared to other awards the criteria are ill-defined. For my sake, I don’t vote for 2nd year players for this category, since they almost always improve simply because it is their 2nd year. I also tend to stay away from players whose improvements are mostly related to playing more minutes. Good to earn minutes, but not always clear if the player is actually better or simply taking advantage of the opportunity.

For these reasons, I am going with Betnijah Laney. She is only playing 5 minutes more per game this year, but she went from being an offensive liability in Indiana, to being at times the entire offense for Atlanta. She has also done this while maintaining her strong defense. It’s not her fault the Dream can not stop anyone.

Myisha Hines-Allen has been impressive, even after cooling off after her strong start. She likely improved, but the big change has been that she is no longer buried behind 2 of the best players in the WNBA in Elena Delle Donne and Emma Meesseman. Meesseman starts next to her, given the lack of effective true centers on the roster, and EDD is still rehabbing a back injury.

2020 WNBA Season Preview: Atlanta Dream

The 2020 season is hopefully still going to happen in some fashion this year. Here begins my preview of each team. This is not going to be an exhaustive preview, but more a look at the key questions facing each team. I will not mention most third round picks, since it is unclear why the WNBA has a third round at all given how few make the team that drafted them. I am going in reverse order of the 2020 standings. Players are grouped as guards, wings and bigs to denote where they mostly play. Within that, 1 = point guard, 2 = shooting guard, 3 = small forward, 4= power forward, and 5 = center. Positions mostly by who a player guards, not where they play on offense. Stats per stats.wnba.com.

The Atlanta Dream struggled last year, finishing last in the league at 8-26. This was a surprise after losing in the semi finals the prior year. The defense had carried them in 2018 but for 2019 it slipped, going from 1st in defensive efficiency to 8th. Pair that with some of the ugliest offense one will see in the WNBA and you get why they ended up in last place. Their 89.8 offensive rating was the second worst in the past 5 years. Playing 1 consistent three point shooter in Renee Montgomery was not a successful strategy. Coach Nikki Collins thankfully will be coaching a reshaped roster that brought in shooting and consistent playmaking, so the offense should be better. Still somewhat limited in true two way players, particularly in the frontcourt, but the Dream should be much more fun to watch.

Roster breakdown

Notable additions:

Courtney Williams. Shekinna Stricklen. Glory Johnson

Notable losses:

Angel McCaughtry. Brittney Sykes. Jessica Breland. Alex Bentley

Draft picks:

1st round: Chennedy Carter

2nd round: Brittany Brewer

Projected depth chart:

Guards: Chennedy Carter, Courtney Williams, Renee Montgomery.

Wings: Tiffany Hayes, Shekinna Stricklen

Bigs: Glory Johnson, Monique Billings, Elizabeth Williams, Kalani Brown

These nine players are favored to make the team and play the bulk of the minutes this year. This is a team that at least one of the remaining 3 spots could go to a third round pick. I’m particularly interested to see how Mikayla Pivec, a guard out of Oregon State pans out.

One more center will likely make the team, either Alaina Coates or Brittany Brewer. Edge to Brewer, as this year’s 2nd round draft pick with the potential to maybe stretch the floor, though 67% free throw shooting leaves me less optimistic than some. They have the cap space to carry 12 players, so maybe Maite Cazorla, a guard who was their 2019 second round pick, gets more time to develop.

Playing time breakdown:

The biggest unknown is going to be who plays the 3 and 4. For both 3 and 4, most of the options come with sharp trade offs between offense and defense. Shekinna Stricklen has the longest history of playing the 3 and the best combination of size (6’2”) and shooting (38% on 6 attempts per game), but lacks footspeed on defense to keep up with more athletic wings.

Glory Johnson is 6’3” and has the speed to guard smaller players, but is only a 32% career 3 point shooter. She did shoot 34% last year, close to average. If she can keep that up, maybe the Dream can use some bigger lineups with Johnson at the 3, which would make them huge on defense.

My preference is they try to go the other direction, with Tiffany Hayes guarding bigger players, in order to maximize the shooting and playmaking on the court. Hayes at 30% is a worse shooter than Johnson but is a much more decisive slasher and playmaker. Outside of super big Washington lineups, I’d take the trade off of a team trying to post up Hayes, to give her a speed advantage on the other end.

This would also allow them to play Johnson at the 4, to ease some spacing concerns that come with their other players. Chennedy Carter was the best player in the draft at Atlanta’s spot, but the main position holding this team back is the four and the five. Glory is the only big on the team who can and will shoot 3s. While better shooting from the guards should help, it is still hard to see this team being a top 6 offensive team as currently constructed. An interesting experiment would be to see if Shekinna Stricklen can hold up at the 4.

For center, size and potential vs production. Playing professional defense is hard for young players, but I hope the Dream give Brown time to see what they have. Brown running pick and rolls with Carter could be fun, as Brown uses her size (6’7”) to rim run, assuming there is sufficient space to roll into.

Elizabeth Williams is a consummate professional, but outside of rim protection is not offering much more than average production as a center. Part of the team’s 2018 success was driven by unsustainable shooting by Williams from the 2, and she fell back to earth last year.

Glory Johnson is the same height as Elizabeth Williams, both 6’3″, but typically has not provided the same rim protection. She would allow for a defense more able to switch pick and rolls, and play 5 out on offense, so would at least be interesting for small stretches.

Courtney Williams is the one guaranteed starter on the roster at the 2, as the team’s main free agency signing. A driving factor in the Sun making the 2019 finals was Williams turning some of her long 2s into 3s. She went from the regular season attempting 1 three a game, to 3.6 a game in the playoffs, while not losing efficiency, shooting an excellent 41% in the playoffs. If Nicki Collens can get Williams to shoot even more 3s in the regular season, Williams might be the signing of the off season. Williams competes on defense and typically does not get taken advantage of, even given her size, 5’8″.

For the 1, Chennedy Carter starting with Renee Montgomery backing up both guard spots would be the most fun to watch. Starting Carter from the beginning, similar to how Dallas handled Arike Ogunbowale last year, is my hope.

Montgomery slipped from 3 last year, and is entering her 12th season, but given she will no longer be the only consistent three point shooter on the floor for most of her minutes, should still be effective. Though the end can come quickly for shorter players, shooting and passing both age well, and she should be able to provide solid back up guard minutes.

This team has the talent to be a better team than in 2019, but it is hard to see them getting back to the playoffs. For that to happen, Chennedy Carter would likely need to step in as a positive force right from the beginning. Possible, but rookie guards usually struggle. Or maybe a big on the team makes strides. What can Kalani Brown do when not buried behind future Hall of Famers and #1 draft picks as she was on the Sparks? Courtney Williams will bring it, but she has never had to carry a team by herself. However, even if the Dream do not win that many more games, thankfully for Dream fans this will be a more fun year after last year’s ugliness.