2020 season preview – Five Out Basketball

6 2020 Season Predictions

1. MVP: Breanna Stewart. When the reigning MVP, Elena Delle Donne is most likely missing the season, and the MVP who won the year before that is back, and only 25, it makes sense to pick Breanna Stewart as MVP. Fun dark horse pick would be Emma Meesseman, as the finals MVP goes from the bench to the best player on her team.

2. Rookie of the year: Sabrina Ionescue. While there are other rookies who will likely get serious playing time and put up numbers, notably Satou Sabally and Chennedy Carter, it makes sense to favor Sabrina. Carter will split playmaking with Courtney Williams and Sabally is playing with Arike Ogunbuwale. Ionescue is going to be leading the team in usage from the very start.

3. Champion: Seattle Storm. This is the year for the Storm to get to defend their championship, with a hopefully healthy Sue Bird and Breanna Stewart. Add in a much improved Jordan Canada, an improved Natasha Howard, and this team is deeper and more talented than any other team.

4. Projected Standings:

Seattle Storm
Los Angeles Sparks
Chicago Sky
Washington Mystics
Minnesota Lynx
Las Vegas Aces
Atlanta Dream
Phoenix Mercury
Connecticut Sun
Indiana Fever
Dallas Wings
New York Liberty

5. DPOY: The boring answer is to say Natasha Howard, who won it last year. But I also think it is a good answer, as she is squarely in her prime and there is no reason for her to drop off. The only thing standing in her way is with Breanna Stewart back will they split the credit and the vote. Another player with a good chance worth highlighting is Napheesa Collier. Wing players are less likely to get this award, as bigs are more integral to defense, but Collier excelled last year with high steal and block rates for a wing. In year 2, she should be even better.

6. Mystics make semifinals. This is definitely my most ambitious prediction, but I believe in the Washington Mystics organization and in Emma Meesseman’s ability to be the most valuable type of player in modern basketball, the big wing. This team is lacking in other areas to get farther, but the semifinals is possible.

2020 Season Preview: Connecticut Sun

The Connecticut Sun were a bit lucky to make it to game 5 in the WNBA finals last year. If Elena Delle Donne is healthy for the entire series, it is probably over in 3 or at most 4 games. However, the Sun did play well and did have success with a roster that fit well together.

Their decision to move on from a key younger player, and sign and trade for an older player, is one that I question. Courtney Williams is 26. Dewanna Bonner is 32. Bonner may have been better last year, but that is a big bet on Bonner keeping her value into her 30s, and Williams not continuing to improve.

However, the biggest impact on the Sun for the 2020 season is nothing to do with Bonner or Williams, but rather Jonquel Jones opting out. Not only is that big for the Sun because Jones was the second best player in the WNBA last year, but the drop off to her backup is more dramatic than it would be for quite a few other teams.

Even with a full team I was not picking this team to return to the finals, but now, I would not pick them to make the semifinals. Defensively they should be good, but I think their offense may slip too much given who they have lost.

Roster Breakdown:

Notable Additions: Dewanna Bonner, Briann January.

Notable Losses: Courtney Williams, Shekinna Stricklen

Draft: 2nd round Kaila Charles

Guards: Briann January, Jasmine Thomas, Jacki Gemelos, Natasha Hiedeman

Wings: Bria Holmes, Dewanna Bonner, Kalena Mosqueda-Lewis, Kaila Charles

Bigs: Alyssa Thomas, Beatrice Mompromier, Brionna Jones, Theresa Plaisance

I like the signing of Beatrice Mompromier. This is a good year to sign a younger player and see what they have to offer. There were more consistent bigs available, but none with the potential upside of Mompromier.

Playing time Breakdown:

Alyssa Thomas is the best player on the team as their 4 and one of the most interesting players in the league. While she is unable to shoot outside of about 5 feet from the basket, she does everything else one would want out of a 4 and she does them very well. Passing, defending, setting screens and more. While she would be undersized, Thomas is strong enough and smart enough defensively to even play some center, which I hope to see.

Even before Jones opted out I was lower on this team than last year’s team, however, because A. Thomas’ inability to shoot is going to be even more of an issue next to Dewanna Bonner. Going from Shekinna Stricklen to Dewanna Bonner is an upgrade in every area except for shooting. But shooting next to a complete non-shooter like Alyssa Thomas is so important, I wonder about the fit.

Dewanna Bonner has typically played most of her minutes at the 3. I do hope Curt Miller experiments more with playing smaller with Dewanna Bonner and Alyssa Thomas in the front court, as Bonner has the size and strength, though you may not see it looking at her, to play against most 4s in the league. Playing at the 4 also allows her to use her speed, and makes her poor shooting less damaging.

Briann January in place of Courtney Williams is a downgrade at the 2. While January is a good defender, she has slipped the season or two, and Williams is a good defender. The bigger issue is on the other end, where in the playoffs Williams became a much better player by taking more 3s, particularly off the dribble. Williams love of long 2s is and was frustrating, but when she cleaned up her shots, her dynamism as a shot creating guard really improved the Sun.

The Sun now do not have a player who is a danger to shoot out of the pick and 3, and attack the rim, which limits their ability to puncture the defense. This combined with non-shooting at the 3, 4 and 5 when Theresa Plaisance is not playing, make me skeptical of this team’s offense.

Brionna Jones has a lot to prove if she is the starting 5. She has not been particularly effective in her limited minutes in past seasons, with a propensity to foul, below average finishing at the rim at only 51%, and trouble defending in space. She’s undersized for the 5, and is not particularly imposing as a rim protector. She can surprise, as Mercedes Lewis did last year for Seattle, but I am not optimistic.

Jasmine Thomas is a great example of why the point guard is the hardest position to learn on the court for young players. She was maybe the second most effective point guard in the WNBA last year, something that would have been unexpected prior to the last couple of years. She figured out her shooting the last three years and is an excellent defender. Keeping her in mind when evaluating other young guards like Kelsey Plum and Kelsey Mitchell is worthwhile.

This team still has the talent to make the playoffs, and even the semifinals. I don’t see them being able to generate enough offense to get much further, but the defense will stay good. Their games may not be the most fun to watch aesthetically speaking, but they will be effective.

2020 Season Preview: LA Sparks

We are days away from the WNBA season kicking off at IMG in Florida. Let us hope the process works, because while the news out of the WNBA campus has not been bad, the broader context in Florida is still among the worst outbreaks in the world. The drawbacks to a governor with no interest in actually governing is in this case having a direct impact on sports and the community.

The LA Sparks underperformed expectations a bit last year in losing so decisively to the Connecticut Sun. Losing in the semifinals was a fine outcome, but how poor they looked was a surprise. After a competitive game 1, the Sun were too athletic and too connected on defense and overwhelmed the Sparks.

Three big questions arose out of the series. Chelsea Gray played ok in the series, but not up to the standard she is capable of. She is 27 and square in her prime, so will likely bounce back, but something to watch.

More seriously, Candace Parker at 34 has begun slipping a bit at age 34. How much can Parker hold on, and how should Fisher use her as she ages, is something to keep an eye on. Parker is tall, a good passer, and ok shooter, so she has so far aged well, but she did struggle against the Sun. She did deal with injuries, so hopefully she can have a healthy season in 2020.

However, the biggest question with the Sparks is their coach. Derek Fisher was not an effective NBA coach in his time with the Knicks. While in the regular season he seemed to do ok with the Sparks, some questionable decision making in the playoffs brought home the questions about his fit as coach.

For all that Parker is no longer a top 3 player in the league, Fisher’s decision to bench her for such an extended stretch in a pivotal playoff game has not been adequately explained. The Sparks could not score and yet Fisher benched the Sparks second best passer and key fulcrum of their offense. Citing a lack of energy makes little sense, when you replace a more effective player with a less effective one. Energy only matters to the extent it is coming from a player who is actually good.

Two key members of the 2020 Sparks have opted out of the season, Kristi Toliver and Chiney Ogwumike. Toliver in particular is a loss for the Sparks, as her shooting and shot creation next to Gray was going to really help the team. Losing Chiney Ogwumike chips at the Sparks depth, but is more replaceable.

Roster Breakdown:

Notable Additions: Seimone Augustus

Notable Losses: Kristi Toliver (opt out), Chiney Ogwumike (opt out)

Guards: Chelsea Gray, Riquna Williams, Te’a Cooper,

Wings: Sydney Wiese, Seimone Augustus, Tierra Ruffin-Pratt, Brittney Sykes

Bigs: Nneka Ogwumike, Candace Parker, Kristine Anigwe, Reshanda Gray, Marie Gülich

The wings and guards on this team are fairly interchangeable, with only a few of the players only able to play at one position. For instance, Wiese and Augustus have often operated as guards on offense, but both are 6’ and can guard wings in theory, though it will be interesting to see how much Augustus has left. Chelsea Gray is the lead ball handler, but is often guarded by the other teams wings and guards them on defense.

Playing time Breakdown:

Nneka Ogwumike is this team’s best player at this point. She is squarely in her prime, and her ability to shift between the 4 and the 5 is one reason this team is able to carry so many bigs and still have success. I would have gone with a guard or wing in Reshanda Gray’s place, particularly a young one such as Kamiah Smalls, but with the versatility of Ogwumike and Candace Parker, the team should be able to make it work.

Ogwumike was the best player for the Sparks in the series against the Sun. Her ability to guard bigger true posts and move her feet defending in space sets her apart from the other centers she is often compared to. She has even developed her three point shot to the point where she provides some spacing, though she is definitely not a true stretch big.

Candace Parker is still a good player. Hopefully she will be healthy this year. Parker would be helped mightily by her 3 point shot coming back, as for a couple of years in 2017 and 2018 she shot over 4 attempts per game at 35%, but both numbers were down last year.

The three is the main hole on this team, and has been since Alana Beard was no longer a full time starter caliber player. Chelsea Gray would be an interesting option here, if the team were to play Gray with two guards. Brittney Sykes looks the part and is likely why the Sparks traded for her, but she has not yet put it together. She shot 26% from 3 last year and 51% at the rim, and worse on the pull up 2s she loves.

Riquna Williams had an effective year for the Sparks at the 2. Last year’s shooting might have been an outlier, as it was the highest of her 7 year career, but she has shown the ability to shoot. She is basically only a 3 point shooter, as she struggles to finish at the rim, only shooting 44%. However, her shooting is valuable and she is a decent defender. At 5’7” she is limited to the 2, as she does not have the size to guard bigger wings nor the passing or dribbling to shift on ball.

Chelsea Gray has functioned as the team’s main ball handler, and excelled at it. She can function as the main offensive ball handler, but still guard opposing wings, as she is 5’11”. The loss of Toliver hurts here, as she is one of the best players in the league at generating threes of the dribble, a valuable and difficult skill, while guarding opposing point guards. Playing another guard with Williams and Gray, such as Wiese or the rookie Te’a Cooper, to get more shooting in the floor, would be a good look to go for stretches and see how it works.

With a full squad, this is a team that had the talent to challenge for the finals. But the loss of Kristi Toliver really hurts this team and makes it hard to see how they are going to generate enough offense to reach those heights. Simply making it back to the semifinals would be a strong result for this team in this weird, truncated, 2020 season. This is also a big year to see how Derek Fisher does coaching, to see if he should be kept for the long term.

2020 Season Preview: Las Vegas Aces

The Las Vegas Aces came in fourth last season, however they had the second best net rating of 3.4, a bit ahead of the Connecticut Sun at 2.9. However, I had picked this team to once again top out in the semifinals with a full team. I was skeptical of this team due to the lack of shooting. Losing two key players in Liz Cambage and Kelsey Plum hurt the teams chances.

Liz Cambage is one of the players who is likely missing this season because they are high risk. She will still get her full salary, and count against the Ace salary cap. We are still waiting on official word for her, so this may need to be updated as the WNBA slowly and fitfully actually informs us.

Without Liz Cambage and Kelsey Plum, out with an achilles injury, this team will be relying on A’ja Wilson to provide a lot of the shot creation without much space to operate. This team has the talent to make the playoffs, but to make it back to the semifinals is now a long shot.

Roster Breakdown:

Notable Losses: Kelsey Plum (injury) Tamera Young, Liz Cambage (medically excused, probably)

Notable Additions: Angel McCoughtry, Danielle Robinson, Lindsay Allen

Guards: Danielle Robinson, Kayla McBride, Sugar Rodgers, Alex Bentley

Wings: Jackie Young, Angel McCoughtry, Dearica Hamby

Bigs: A’Ja Wilson, Liz Cambage, Carolyn Swords, Avery Warley-Talbert

Veterans make sense when a team is going for a championship, though it helps if they are actually effective. Clearly the Aces feel differently about their full team than I do, since I would have used one of the open spots on a young player instead of Alex Bentley. Te’a Cooper for instance was available.

Angel McCoughtry at full strength is likely still effective, but at the price the Aces paid, and her odd fit with the existing roster, made her signing curious. Though funnily enough she may be more valuable on this current roster than she would have been on the team the Aces anticipated having.

Playing Time Breakdown:

Dearica Hamby is one of the best backup bigs in the league and she will be able to slot in next to A’ja Wilson in a lot of lineups. She should start with A’ja Wilson. Hamby is undersized against many fives, but she is tough and can guard a lot of them, and use her quickness on the other end to her advantage. Any continued improvement in her shooting would be beneficial, as this is a team, as I have said, starved for shooting. /She shot 32% on 2 attempts per game in 2019. She should be looking to double her attempts this year, and hopefully increase the accuracy, but spacing is based more on attempts than accuracy so Hamby firing away would be beneficial.

One of the most interesting aspects of this team from a purely basketball standpoint is how much can A’ja Wilson hang as a center. While she’d be slightly undersized there, long term it may be her best position in closing lineups, unless she adds a three point shot, something she has not shown yet. On offense, she would be devastating with four shooters around her, and it is easier to get her those if she plays center, though finding a center who can shoot 3s, a la Amanda Zahui B, would be an interesting idea for a post-Cambage Aces team.

How much Angel McCoughtry has left after a year off playing is the question for the team at the three. In 2018 I was hoping to see McCoughtry at the 4 for the Atlanta dream. Injuries derailed that idea, but we may see it again with the Aces. She has the size against most teams to play it, and it would help her as losing a step at the 4 is not as killer as at the 3. A career 29% 3 point shooter on less than 1 attempt per game, she will not provide much spacing, but that would be slightly less damaging at the 4, when either Hamby or Wilson are not playing.

Kayla McBride is going to be shooting. She always does, but on this team, she will be extra needed to shoot. How much gravity can one player provide? Not enough to craft an above average offense is my guess, but we shall see. McBride is a good player, someone who is above average at all aspects of the game from a shooting guard, though not quite elite in any area. Closest is her three point shooting, at 37% on 5 attempts per 36 minutes. That should be higher, no reason she can not be at 7 like Allie Quigley. Too many long 2s for such a shooter.

Point guard is an open question. The Jackie Young experiment at point guard did not go particularly well last year, and was pretty quickly mothballed in the playoffs, but might be the best option this year. A year two improvement is to be expected, but it will be tough for her to improve her offense enough to be as impactful as a number 1 pick is hoped to be.

Danielle Robinson was signed to be the backup point guard so might get the call. Even as a backup I wonder why the Aces signed a point guard who can’t shoot or finish at the rim. She can ill afford to lose much of her speed, given she is a total non shooter and an adequate passer, not exceptional. She is going to be 31 and speedy point guards that can’t shoot don’t tend to age well, but hopefully she can still produce.

This team should still be fairly effective on defense, but the offense is likely to be a slog. They have the players to get out and run in transition once again, which should help their offense, but half court will be a struggle. Laimbeer has typically proved to be reluctant to go small, but this might be the year for him to experiment more, especially given how thin the team is in their front court after their starters. Making the semifinals again would be a good outcome for this team.

2020 WNBA Season Preview: Chicago Sky

While no player is guaranteed to be playing this year until the season actually tips off in Bradenton, Florida, we are getting a sense of what the rosters will look like. Renee Montgomery, Jonquel Jones, Kristi Toliver, Chiney Ogwumike, and Natasha Cloud are prominent players who have announced they will not be playing this year.

Jones in particular will have a big impact on the actual season, as she was the second best player in the W last year and was an integral part of how the Connecticut Sun played. But that is for the Sun preview piece, coming in a couple of weeks.

The Chicago Sky for now have 10 players, with the news of Jantel Lavender’s surgery on her foot. I will be updating my season preview pieces as we go to reflect changes, though I will clearly mark where updates happened based on new info.

The Sky were unlucky to not move on and play in the semifinals against the Washington Mystics. The Aces were good, but that was a 50/50 game. In hindsight some seem to view the Aces as the clearcut second best team in the WNBA last year, but I can’t get there, given they scraped by the Sky. The WNBA should revisit their playoff structure, since this would have been a wonderful matchup to have a best of 5, or at least best of 3, series.

The Sky going into a normal season would have needed some luck to make the semifinals. But given the rosters as they stand, they have a chance at making the finals. Even with the news that Jantel Lavender is missing the season with a foot injury, they have more continuity than any other team, while they have a young player in Diamond DeShields who has the opportunity to be a top 5 player in the WNBA.

Roster Breakdown:

Notable additions: Azurá Stevens

Notable losses: Astou Ndou, Jantel Lavender (injury)

1st round draft pick: Ruthy Hebard

Guards: Courtney Vandersloot, Allie Quigley, Stella Johnson,

Wings: Diamond DeShields, Gabby Williams, Kahleah Copper

Bigs: Stefanie Dolson, Azurá Stevens, Ruthy Hebard, Cheyenne Parker.

Stella Johnson is a player I am excited to see this year. A silver lining of this year’s playing situation is getting to see so many young players make rosters. Hopefully Ruthy Hebard gets some playing time, to see how she does finishing against WNBA length and holds up on the defensive end.

Playing Time breakdown:

Courtney Vandersloot and Allie Quigley are the starting back court. They need to keep up their offensive output, and for Quigley ensure that they are not too liable on defense, to make this team work. But they are the steady, consistent part of the team. Watching two players who are married to each other play at such a high level is one reason the WNBA is an amazing league to watch.

Diamond DeShields is the biggest swing player for this team. At her peak, she has top 5 in the WNBA level talent. She, like many athletic wings, including both of her teammates Gabby Williams and Kahleah Copper, have to figure out how to maximize their games when their opponents are nearly as athletic.

For Diamond, she already has a functional 3 point shot, is the most devastating transition player in the W, and has a decent handle. Year 3 is time for her to tighten her handle, improve her playmaking for others, and take the next step.

Gabby Williams as backup point guard will probably not be tried again, but the Sky getting something out of her would be great for their eventual championship aspirations. Williams was drafted fourth behind DeShields, and has not lived up to her draft spot yet. Her issue is mainly her shot has not developed.

She plays a position of need in modern basketball, as an athletic 5’11” wing, but is not dynamic enough to function as the one non-shooting player on the floor. This is a big year, since if she does not show improvement, the Sky will have a tough decision to make as to what kind of contract to offer her.

Stefanie Dolson is a fine option at center. While she is definitely a tier below the upper tier of WNBA centers, she is good enough to play on a team that nearly beat Liz Cambage and the Aces. While cutting down on her foul rate would help, she is a stretch 5 who provides decent rim protection, better than her block numbers would indicate.

The four is the most open position on this team. A healthy Azurá Stevens would be my choice, as her shooting would help create acres of space for DeShields and Vandersloot to attack the basket with Dolson also spacing the floor. She can also provide more rim protection than the other options, though she may be a bit overtaxed chasing some fours.

Diamond Deshields should get some time as a small ball 4 next to Kahleah Copper. Plenty of matchups should present themselves where she has more than enough size and athleticism to hold her own on defense, and good luck to a more traditional four forced to defend Copper or DeShields.

Cheyenne Parker has made some strides to expand her game out to the three point line, but I am not convinced she will be effective enough against starters, though James Wade starting her would not be a surprise. Parker showing improving passing would help, as she can get tunnel vision when she catches the ball, and teams might take advantage by trapping Vandersloot in the pick and roll and forcing Parker to make plays 4 on 3 at the three point line.

The Sky should be aiming for the finals, as things stand. Semifinals are a realistic goal, anything less than a top 4 finish would be a bit of a disappointment. Four of their starters are set and this will be the third year they have played together, something that should help in such a compressed season.

2020 WNBA Season Preview: Seattle Storm

There are more important things than basketball, and being anti-racist and pushing anti-racist policies is one of them. Defunding the police is a serious conversation worth having. At a minimum we need to push for bad cops to be fired and not allowed to simply be rehired two towns over. We need reparations and fully integrated schools and neighborhoods, to redress centuries of racist policies that stole wealth from Black people to help white people amass wealth. These are issues I will continue to work on in my city, state, and country.

In less important news, but what this site is for me to talk about, it looks like basketball will be starting up at some point. I have mixed feelings on the wisdom of playing, given how rates of coronavirus appear to be going in the wrong direction in some states, particularly Florida, but the momentum is in favor of both WNBA and NBA playing towards the end of July in Florida. July 24th is the date the WNBA has announced they are aiming for.

There is some chatter about players opting to sit out the season. I will update my preview pieces as we find out which players are not going to play this year.

The Seattle Storm are my pick to win the championship, should a season happen. Seattle never got the chance to defend their championship, and but this is the core of a team that has already shown it can win at the highest levels. It is dependent on Breanna Stewart’s health and ability to return to the player she was in 2018, or something close to it. While Seattle was a bit lucky to win their one playoff game last year against the Minnesota Lynx, their success did augur well for them going forward.

Roster Breakdown:

Notable additions:

Breanna Stewart, Sue Bird (back from injuries) Morgan Tuck. Ezi Magbegor, Epiphanny Prince

Notable Losses: Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis, Shavonte Zellous.

Draft Picks:

1st round: Kitija Laksa (staying overseas)

Guards: Sue Bird, Jewell Loyd, Jordin Canada, Sami Whitcomb, Epiphanny Prince,

Wings: Alysha Clark, Breanna Stewart.

Bigs: Natasha Howard, Morgan Tuck, Ezi Magbegor, Mercedes Lewis, Crystal Langhorne

The brilliance of the pairing of Natasha Howard and Breanna Stewart is that both can function as wings and bigs, depending on team needs and the situation. I listed Howard as a big and Stewart as a wing to show how they often play, but either can play inside or outside.

Laksa is a player I was very high on in the draft, really hope to see her next season and see how she plays. Good size and a quick release makes me think she can have success in the WNBA.

Playing Time Breakdown:

Sue Bird is the point guard, assuming she is healthy. Her shooting and passing are still elite. The team has good defenders at all four other positions, so her lack of foot speed on that end at this point is not as big a deal. However, should she be unable to play up to her lofty standards, the Storm have the best backup point guard in the league in Jordin Canada.

Canada and Seattle are a great match. This team is built to accentuate her strengths and minimize her weaknesses. Her major weakness is a lack of shooting, which on most other teams would hurt. But this is a team that can play four shooters around her, and with Canada’s speed, she should be devastating attacking an empty paint as Howard and Stewart space the floor. Her finishing at the rim and floater should improve with more experience. She will reduce their ceiling on offense compared to Bird, but Canada is also a disruptive defender who can rack up steals without gambling too much.

Jewell Loyd is an excellent defender and a good offensive player, though she has room to go as a consistent offensive player. She has a tendency to disappear at times in games. Her ability to attack the rim comes and goes, but part of gaining experience is becoming more consistent. Going into her 26 year old season, right on the cusp of her prime, she is only going to get better. Especially as she gets to be a second or even third option again, a more natural fit for her.

Alysha Clark is an excellent fit for this team. A prototypical 3 and d wing, she is very good at her role on this team. As long as the Storm never ask her to create her own shot or a shot for someone else, she is a good contributor. She has even improved her passing, so long as she is attacking a closeout and not starting from scratch. Defensively she competes against anyone and is a key part of the Storm’s success.

Breanna Stewart is the best player in the WNBA when fully healthy. Elene Delle Donne is excellent, but I give the slight edge to Stewart. The beauty of Stewart’s game is that she gives you the offensive skillset of a 6’4” small forward with the rim protection of a center. While she is not the shooter that EDD is, she is a good shooter, and she is a better passer and defender. EDD has improved both aspects of her game, but I would still take Stewart. Stewart is also five years younger, and still improving.

Natasha Howard was overmatched as a primary offensive creator on last year’s team at times, but it was impressive that she was as effective as she was. Now she will be able to take a step back from having to create so much of her own offense, while still having that experience to draw on. She will have to defend opposing centers again, rather than Mercedes Lewis, but that will give her a speed edge on the other end. The reigning defensive player of the year, I can’t wait to watch her and Stewart fly around on defense once again.

Howard is a good example of why teams give chances to athletes who need their skill level to catch up. She has improved her shooting and ball handling, and you can’t teach the things Howard can do athletically. Of course, sometimes the shot never comes around, which is why scouting is hard.

If we get top 3 WNBA player Breanna Stewart, Seattle is my choice to win another championship. Other than Bird, their best players are entering or are in their prime, whereas other teams are relying on older players to hang on. This season, should it be able to be played and with most of the best players, should be an exciting one with two teams acting as defending champions. If not this year, here’s hoping we get a healthy Mystics-Storm playoff series at some point.

2020 WNBA Preview: Minnesota Lynx

WNBA teams have cut down their teams to their official roster, should a new season happen. From now forward we at least will have some clarity on who teams are going to be carrying into a season.

Minnesota played well last year, given the talent they lost from their championship winning team. Lindsey Whalen and Rebekkah Brunson retired. Seimone Augustus played much less because of injury. Augustus has now signed with the Los Angeles Sparks, which will take some getting used to.

Maya Moore also sat out, and will sit out this year as well, as she focuses on fighting mass incarceration and successfully freeing Jonathan Irons. While I would love to see Moore play basketball again, as one of my favorite players of all time, her advocacy off court has been impressive, on an issue very important to me. Particularly in a pandemic, bringing attention to unjust prison sentences is more important than basketball.

Back to this year’s Lynx, this is a team that has question marks at the guard spot to be answered, though their front court is among the strongest in the league. Napheesa Collier had one of the most impressive rookie campaigns in recent history, Sylvia Fowles is still very effective.

The defense should once again be good, as the team had the second best defensive rating in the league last year and returns the key components of the defense. The offense was ok, but was a bit hit or miss, given the lack of shooting from guard, with Danielle Robinson starting at point guard much of the year.

This is a team that was hurt by the league’s use of single elimination games in the playoffs. They had a better net rating than a Seattle Storm team that had a great game to knock them out, and would have had a chance to win a series. Single elimination games are a terrible way to run a playoffs in the WNBA. They should at least be given a best of 3, if not a best of 5.

Roster Breakdown:

Notable Additions:

Rachel Banham, Shenise Johnson

Notable Losses:

Seimone Augustus, Stephanie Talbot, Jessica Shepherd (suspended for season, still rehabbing a knee injury)

Draft Picks:

1st round: Mikiah Herbert Harrigan

2nd round: Crystal Dangerfield

Guards: Odyssey Sims*, Crystal Dangerfield, Lexi Brown, Rachel Banham

Wings: Napheesa Collier, Cecilia Zandalasini, Bridget Carleton, Karima Christmas-Kelly, Shenise Johnson

Bigs: Sylvia Fowles, Damiras Dantas, Mikiah Herbert Harrigan, Kayla Alexander.

*Odyssey Sims is returning from pregnancy, and starts the season on the inactive list.

Playing Time Breakdown:

Sylvia Fowles is still one of the most effective centers in the league, so center is taken care of.. While she was down a bit from her incredible peak a few seasons ago, she is still very effective, scoring .995 per post up per which was in the 74th percentile on a healthy number of attempts per Synergy .

I am curious to see is whether the team incorporates more pick and rolls using Fowles as screener, given that a play in which Fowles finished in the pick and roll was worth 1.093 points per possession, though on a smaller number of attempts. They may lack guards who are particularly adept at running them, for as long as Sims sits out, but it still may be a better option than asking Fowles to do the shot creation herself.

Napheesa Collier had one of the more impressive rookie years one will see. Especially given that she was moving from the 4 in college to the 3 for Minnesot. Her shooting, 38% from 3, and ball handling, were better than I expected moving out on the perimeter. That she would eventually get there was believable, but not right from the first game. Those shooting numbers may not hold up this year, which would reduce her effectiveness, but even without it, she still has the chance to be the best player from the 2019 draft, an incredible get for the Lynx with the sixth pick.

I would like to see more of Collier at the 4 more this year, to see if the Lynx can improve their offense. But Damiras Danta played well at the 4 last year, and does provide spacing from there. She just is much less of a threat off the dribble than Collier, and is not much of an upgrade on defense. Another interesting wrinkle would be Dantas at the 5 and Collier at the 4, and go five out, when Sylvia Fowles has to sit. Dantas is big enough to defend most backup 5s, and would be a tough cover at the other end. Could stagger Dantas and Fowles, to make up for the lack of a backup center that is particularly effective.

Guard is the big question mark for this team. Odyssey Sims had a decent 2019 season, though she had the bad luck of her worst game of the year coming in their playoff game against Seattle. Sims was very good in transition. The Lynx hope she can be more efficient in the half court. She is now out, and it is unclear if she will be back this year.

Lexie Brown played back up point last year, but seems like she might be overmatched in that role as a starter. Rookie point guard is a tough position to play, and Crystal Dangerfield will need to overcome doubts about her size on defense at only 5’5”, but she has shown the ability to be a quality point guard in her time at UCONN. Dangerfield in particular can play off ball and shoot off screens, a wrinkle the Lynx did no really have last year, except sometimes with Lexi Brown.

Rachel Banham was also brought in, but she is more of a theoretical shooter at this point, compared to Brown. Brown has shot better for her career, at 37% compared to 32% for Banham, and Brown was at 40% last year, her first where she played real minutes. Neither player got to the basket much nor shot particularly well there, with Brown at 39% on shots in the half court at the rim, and Banham at 40%, but Brown did get there nearly 4 times as often.

Shooting guard should go to Cecilia Zandalasini. At 6’2” she would be the tallest shooting guard in the league. Defensively she might struggle with the quickness of opponents in the wrong matchup, but given her shooting combined with her size, would be a tough cover at the other end. She, after Collier, is the player with the upside to help this team over perform expectations.

Minnesota is going to live and die by their guard play this year. My prediction is for an 8th place finish and to squeak into the playoffs, but Cheryl Reeve is a Hall of Fame coach and may be able to maximize this roster. Also, it is possible that Collier is able to shoot as well or better than last year, and takes a step forward as many second year players do, in which case she could drive this team to win even more games, as a big wing with her skill is the biggest driver of winning.

2020 WNBA Season Preview: Indiana Fever

The Indiana Fever had a better year in 2019 than 2018, going from 12th to 9th, and just missing the playoffs. The next step, making the playoffs, will likely need to wait another year or two. While the Fever have some good pieces, it is unclear if this is a team with a player who can be a top 10 player in the W, much less top 5. That will define how this rebuild goes, and I am not hopeful.

While Pokey Chatman knew basketball well, Marianne Stanley will hopefully bring the style of the Washington Mystics with her. More 3s and better spacing on offense. Indiana does not have Elene Delle Donne, so the results won’t be as good, but the style should be playable.

Though the offense should be more dynamic, it was league average at 7th in 2019. The defense, at 11th, was even more of a struggle. In time, Lauren Cox will be able to help with this, but asking a rookie big to make a big difference on defense is a tall order. Year 2 Teaira McCowan should be better, as well, especially near the basket.

The Fever have lots of cap space, according to Richard Cohen, and so should a disgruntled star want out they could be a destination. The difficult part is convincing said player to want to go to Indianapolis. Indianapolis is an underrated city, and is the WNBA city I live closest too, but needless to say it is no LA or Las Vegas.

Speaking of the difficulty of getting a star, this is why I would have taken Chennedy Carter over Lauren Cox. Lauren Cox’s floor is higher than Carter’s, as a solid big she should have a good WNBA career, but her upside is not nearly as high. For a small market team like Indiana, drafting is the only way to build a championship contending team, and sometimes risks need to be taken.

Unless Cox starts shooting threes at a high volume and increases her shot creation, which is possible, if not likely, it is hard to envision her becoming the kind of star a team can build around. Even a number 2 on a championship team seems like a stretch. Carter may not figure out her shooting to reach her potential, but if she does, watch out.

The team seems to be in about the same position as last year. Major growth from Teaira McCown and Kelsey Mitchell are the best hope for a better than expected year, but this team is likely to finish in the same spot as last year, if not lower.

Roster Breakdown:

Notable Additions:

Julie Allemand

Notable Losses:

none

Draft Picks:

First round: Lauren Cox

Second Round: Kathleen Doyle

Third round: Kamiah Smalls (already cut)

Projected Depth Chart:

Guards: Erica Wheeler, Kelsey Mitchell, Tiffany Mitchell, Kathleen Doyle, Julie Allemand

Wings: Victoria Vivians, Bitnajah Laney, Kennedy Burke

Bigs: Teaira McCowan, Candice Dupree, Natalie Achonwa, Stephanie Mavunga.

Julie Allemand is a 23 yr old point guard with high level experience in Europe. Given the Fever’s options at point are unsettled, she is worth a look. Kathleen Doyle and Stephanie Mavunga are the players I am least confident about making the team.

Playing time breakdown:

Teaira McCowan is the one player guaranteed to be starting. She was an effective center last year who generated fouls at a higher rate than comparable centers like Sylvia Fowles and Liz Cambage. She shot only 57% in the restricted area, so a main goal should be to get that up into the mid 60s, where comparable top centers finish.

She is so big at 6’ 7” that she is a deterrent at the rim, but will continue to need to work on defending in space, and the rest of the roster will need to play a style that minimizes her lack of mobility. But she is a key piece of the Fever’s future.

The swing spot for this team in terms of style of play is going to be the 4. Will Candice Dupree finally take two steps back and shoot 3s? Can Lauren Cox up the number of attempts she takes from 3 to make teams honor her out there? Either way, finding a way to add more shooting to the lineup will maximize Teaira McCowan’s effectiveness rolling to the rim and should be a priority long term for the Fever.

My vote is for more playing time for Cox. Dupree is a smart player who has had a wonderful career, but she can be an effective backup and mentor for Cox, while Cox learns to play with McCowan. Cox will make more mistakes on defense, but also provide more rim protection.

Some analysts ($) have Candice Dupree playing the 3, but at this point in her career, her lack of foot speed and the lack of 3 point shooting makes that unworkable. A healthy Victoria Vivians would be ideal for this spot. At 6’1” Vivians was a phenomenal shooter in 2018, shooting 40% on 5 attempts per game as a rookie, before missing all of last year with an ACL injury. When healthy, she has the athleticism and size to guard the top wing scorers in the W, which would be big for a Fever team that was limited in two way players at wing in 2019.

Kelsey Mitchell will almost certainly start. The question that the Fever should be trying to answer this year is whether long term she is their point guard or shooting guard. Her assist % was low for a point guard at 19%, compared to her teammate Erica Wheeler at 35%. Her shooting and shot creation are valuable skills that are hard to find. Should she improve her pick and roll decision making, she has the outlines of a dynamic modern point guard who can shoot 3s off the dribble in the pick and roll. The hope for the Fever is in year 3 she is set for a breakout, a la Kelsey Plum last year.

Erica Wheeler is a solid point guard, especially if she shoots like she did last year, at 37% on a decent number of attempts per game. At 29 she is the second oldest player on the team, and as an undersized guard who relies on athleticism might not age well. But for this year, she and Kelsey Mitchell will likely play a lot of minutes together.

Tiffany Mitchell quietly received, after Bria Hartley, the most curious deal in the most recent free agency at $140,000 over 3 years, per High Post Hoops. She is the highest paid player on the Fever, and will likely not start this year. As previously discussed, they have the cap space to add a new player, and pay their players on rookie deals, so it might not cost them other opportunities, but I’m not sure her leaving for Atlanta would have been the end of the world. It seemed like Atlanta made out better when their offer was matched by the Fever. She would be, what, the fifth guard on the Dream?

Mitchell has more offensive ability than Laney or Burke, so she might be able to play backup minutes at the 3 as well as the 2, against certain matchups, but she lacks the size for that to be a long term option, at only 5’9”. She attacks the basket fairly well, but has shot under 30% her 3 years in the league who tends to get tunnel vision on drives.

Year 2 of Teaira McCowan and year 3 of Kelsey Mitchell give Fever fans something to look forward to. I am lower on the long term outlook of this team than some comparable teams. One of their players popping and showing unexpected growth would solve their lack of a star player. Until then, this is a team with a lower ceiling than is ideal. The rebuild continues.

2020 WNBA Season Preview: New York Liberty

New York Liberty is the next team up in my preview of the 2020 WNBA season, assuming it happens in some fashion. No team in the WNBA has gone through as radical a reshaping (link trade grades for Tina Charles) of their roster as the New York Liberty. With multiple draft picks in the 2020 first round and the first half of the second round, this is going to be the team to watch for the next few years as they play out their vision of the changing dynamics of the WNBA. Lots of wings, few bigs.

Last year’s Liberty team struggled on both defense and offense, but especially defense, ranking last in defensive efficiency per wnba.com. This year’s team may not be much better on defense, but they will hopefully not rank third from the bottom in offensive efficiency. Sabrina Ionescue + a bunch of shooters are promising, even given their youth.

Roster Breakdown

Notable additions:

Layshia Clarendon

Key losses:

Tina Charles, Brittany Boyd, Bria Hartley, Tanisha Wright.

Draft picks:

1st round: Sabrina Ionescue, Megan Walker, Jazmine Jones, Jocelyn Willoughby (via trade)

2nd round: Kylee Shook, Leonna Odom.

Projected depth chart:

Guards: Sabrina Ionescue, Layshia Clarendon, Aysia Durr, Marine Johannes.

Wings: Kia Nurse, Megan Walker, Jazmine Jones, Rebecca Allen, Jocelyn Willoughby.

Bigs: Amanda Zahui B, Kylee Shook, Han Xu, Kiah Stokes

There are 13 players listed here. The max a team can have in the WNBA is 12, so something will have to give. If a 2020 season happens, it is likely that at least some of the international players on the roster will not come. So as long as one of Zahui B, Johannes, Han Xu, Allen does not play this year, that makes things easier. Though it will be interesting to see where the team goes next year. Kiah Stokes has a nonguaranteed contract, so could an option to be cut.

As Gabe Ibrahim points out, second round picks are going to struggle to make rosters this year, nevermind third round picks, so Odom will have to really impress or hope quite a few international players don’t make it over.

Playing time breakdown:

This team has their point guard and center down. Sabrina Ionescue should start from day one. Rookie point guard is the hardest position to learn in the WNBA, so Ionescue may struggle at the start, but she is the long term bet and will get all the playing time she could want.

While it is unclear to me why Clarendon still plays with Team USA given other options, she is a solid backup who was hurt by an ankle injury last year and likely would have played more without them. I am excited to see if the Liberty use Ionescue off ball at all, given her shooting. Her running off screens and bending defenses will add variety to her excellent on ball skills. I’m as excited to watch Ionescue as I have ever been for a basketball player.

For center, Amanda Zahui B was the second best player on the team last year after Kia Nurse. While the Liberty should be careful to not overpay Zahui B after this year and hamstring their flexibility going forward, she is a good player, especially given her ability to shoot from deep. Backup center is going to be interesting. If the team keeps Kiah Stokes, she is the most reliable. Kylee Shook provides a stretch factor, but may struggle against bigger opponents, and defense as a big is hard for most rookies.

Han Xu will hopefully get more playing time at center. She showed flashes last year in limited minutes. At only 20 years old, she is a 6’9” center who has a pretty looking shot from 3. Should continue to get stronger and improve her mobility on defense. It will be interesting to see what kind of appetite the Liberty have for a long term project. But given the importance of growing the Chinese market to the WNBA and the Liberty, and Hu’s own real basketball skills, bet on her staying on the team.

Kia Nurse is a guaranteed starter. What will be interesting is whether she plays the three, as she did much of last year, or if she is slid down to the 2 to make way for one of the many wings the Liberty drafted. If Nurse stays at the 3, Marine Johannes would make sense based on production for the 2, but Asia Durr for the future, as the Liberty’s #2 pick from last year. Might see some combo Clarendon + Ionescue lineups as well.

The Liberty appear to be all in on switchable wings for the three and the four. Kia Nurse may play the 3, but if not her, then pick 2 of the Megan Walker, Rebecca Allen, Jocelyn Willoughby, and Jazmine Jones grouping to play the 3 and 4. Allen and Walker together provides a ton of shooting, but will they be able to handle playing defense against bigger players. Who of this group is the least overmatched against A’Ja Wilson will be a key task for Johnathan Kolb to figure out.

Kylee Shook has the size and possibly the shooting. I’m less familiar with her game, good piece on her here by Ben Dull. She would be an interesting option at the four.

Takeaway:

Offense, offense, offense. Offense will be the reason to watch this team. . It is hard to play so many young players and have a competent defense, so the playoffs are unlikely. But the offense should be fun. This will be my #1 League Pass team should the season come to pass.

2020 WNBA Season Preview: Atlanta Dream

The 2020 season is hopefully still going to happen in some fashion this year. Here begins my preview of each team. This is not going to be an exhaustive preview, but more a look at the key questions facing each team. I will not mention most third round picks, since it is unclear why the WNBA has a third round at all given how few make the team that drafted them. I am going in reverse order of the 2020 standings. Players are grouped as guards, wings and bigs to denote where they mostly play. Within that, 1 = point guard, 2 = shooting guard, 3 = small forward, 4= power forward, and 5 = center. Positions mostly by who a player guards, not where they play on offense. Stats per stats.wnba.com.

The Atlanta Dream struggled last year, finishing last in the league at 8-26. This was a surprise after losing in the semi finals the prior year. The defense had carried them in 2018 but for 2019 it slipped, going from 1st in defensive efficiency to 8th. Pair that with some of the ugliest offense one will see in the WNBA and you get why they ended up in last place. Their 89.8 offensive rating was the second worst in the past 5 years. Playing 1 consistent three point shooter in Renee Montgomery was not a successful strategy. Coach Nikki Collins thankfully will be coaching a reshaped roster that brought in shooting and consistent playmaking, so the offense should be better. Still somewhat limited in true two way players, particularly in the frontcourt, but the Dream should be much more fun to watch.

Roster breakdown

Notable additions:

Courtney Williams. Shekinna Stricklen. Glory Johnson

Notable losses:

Angel McCaughtry. Brittney Sykes. Jessica Breland. Alex Bentley

Draft picks:

1st round: Chennedy Carter

2nd round: Brittany Brewer

Projected depth chart:

Guards: Chennedy Carter, Courtney Williams, Renee Montgomery.

Wings: Tiffany Hayes, Shekinna Stricklen

Bigs: Glory Johnson, Monique Billings, Elizabeth Williams, Kalani Brown

These nine players are favored to make the team and play the bulk of the minutes this year. This is a team that at least one of the remaining 3 spots could go to a third round pick. I’m particularly interested to see how Mikayla Pivec, a guard out of Oregon State pans out.

One more center will likely make the team, either Alaina Coates or Brittany Brewer. Edge to Brewer, as this year’s 2nd round draft pick with the potential to maybe stretch the floor, though 67% free throw shooting leaves me less optimistic than some. They have the cap space to carry 12 players, so maybe Maite Cazorla, a guard who was their 2019 second round pick, gets more time to develop.

Playing time breakdown:

The biggest unknown is going to be who plays the 3 and 4. For both 3 and 4, most of the options come with sharp trade offs between offense and defense. Shekinna Stricklen has the longest history of playing the 3 and the best combination of size (6’2”) and shooting (38% on 6 attempts per game), but lacks footspeed on defense to keep up with more athletic wings.

Glory Johnson is 6’3” and has the speed to guard smaller players, but is only a 32% career 3 point shooter. She did shoot 34% last year, close to average. If she can keep that up, maybe the Dream can use some bigger lineups with Johnson at the 3, which would make them huge on defense.

My preference is they try to go the other direction, with Tiffany Hayes guarding bigger players, in order to maximize the shooting and playmaking on the court. Hayes at 30% is a worse shooter than Johnson but is a much more decisive slasher and playmaker. Outside of super big Washington lineups, I’d take the trade off of a team trying to post up Hayes, to give her a speed advantage on the other end.

This would also allow them to play Johnson at the 4, to ease some spacing concerns that come with their other players. Chennedy Carter was the best player in the draft at Atlanta’s spot, but the main position holding this team back is the four and the five. Glory is the only big on the team who can and will shoot 3s. While better shooting from the guards should help, it is still hard to see this team being a top 6 offensive team as currently constructed. An interesting experiment would be to see if Shekinna Stricklen can hold up at the 4.

For center, size and potential vs production. Playing professional defense is hard for young players, but I hope the Dream give Brown time to see what they have. Brown running pick and rolls with Carter could be fun, as Brown uses her size (6’7”) to rim run, assuming there is sufficient space to roll into.

Elizabeth Williams is a consummate professional, but outside of rim protection is not offering much more than average production as a center. Part of the team’s 2018 success was driven by unsustainable shooting by Williams from the 2, and she fell back to earth last year.

Glory Johnson is the same height as Elizabeth Williams, both 6’3″, but typically has not provided the same rim protection. She would allow for a defense more able to switch pick and rolls, and play 5 out on offense, so would at least be interesting for small stretches.

Courtney Williams is the one guaranteed starter on the roster at the 2, as the team’s main free agency signing. A driving factor in the Sun making the 2019 finals was Williams turning some of her long 2s into 3s. She went from the regular season attempting 1 three a game, to 3.6 a game in the playoffs, while not losing efficiency, shooting an excellent 41% in the playoffs. If Nicki Collens can get Williams to shoot even more 3s in the regular season, Williams might be the signing of the off season. Williams competes on defense and typically does not get taken advantage of, even given her size, 5’8″.

For the 1, Chennedy Carter starting with Renee Montgomery backing up both guard spots would be the most fun to watch. Starting Carter from the beginning, similar to how Dallas handled Arike Ogunbowale last year, is my hope.

Montgomery slipped from 3 last year, and is entering her 12th season, but given she will no longer be the only consistent three point shooter on the floor for most of her minutes, should still be effective. Though the end can come quickly for shorter players, shooting and passing both age well, and she should be able to provide solid back up guard minutes.

This team has the talent to be a better team than in 2019, but it is hard to see them getting back to the playoffs. For that to happen, Chennedy Carter would likely need to step in as a positive force right from the beginning. Possible, but rookie guards usually struggle. Or maybe a big on the team makes strides. What can Kalani Brown do when not buried behind future Hall of Famers and #1 draft picks as she was on the Sparks? Courtney Williams will bring it, but she has never had to carry a team by herself. However, even if the Dream do not win that many more games, thankfully for Dream fans this will be a more fun year after last year’s ugliness.