Quite a few teams are going to have difficult roster decisions to make next year as players who opted out of this season return to teams. But no team will have such interesting decisions as the The New York Liberty. Relative lack of proven veterans combined with a good collection of high upside young players will make for some tough decisions. As the team plays out their final 5 games, here is a look at the roster decisions that head coach Walt Hopkins and CEO Keia Clarke will have to weigh in preparation for the 2021 season.
First a side note on player development. I have long bought into the idea that young players should be played to give them experience and help develop them. The idea that certain coaches’ habit of playing veterans in a losing season over young players holds the team back. However, the recent history of player development does not really bear this out.
From the NBA side, this article by John Hollinger ($) looks at how the Denver Nuggets and Portland Trail Blazers have had some of the best player success in the NBA, and they are the only two NBA teams without G League teams. Concerted effort in practice, in 3 on 3s and 4 on 4s, seems to matter in skill development more than game time. A cross sports comparison can be seen in baseball, as this piece from fivethirtyeight dug into.
For the WNBA, the success of young players developing under Mike Thibault and Cheryl Reeve also gives some evidence that playing time is not necessarily a key component of player development. Both have been coaching successful teams and thus have not been able to give lots of playing time to young prospects who are not ready. Yet, Myisha Hines-Allen has been excellent now that she has her opportunity in year 3, after barely playing before this year. Natasha Howard played relatively few minutes for the Lynx, but was ready to step into a much larger role on the Storm with an improved skill set when minutes were there for her.
While it would be nice for those of us who analyze the WNBA based on watching games if the Liberty rookies would be given more playing time over the veterans, Walt Hopkins playing veterans may not be holding the young players back. The Liberty have plans for developing their young players, and those plans will happen regardless of how many minutes those players get in the final games of the 2020 season.
The New York Liberty will have 12 players on their roster next season. Here’s a look now at where the Liberty players, both those in Bradenton and those who opted out, stand. Who is likely to be on the roster next year and who may be grinding for another spot in the league with another team.
In descending order from most likely to still likely but less so. A real cutoff happens after Johannes. I would be surprised if Walker was not on the team next year, but not shocked, like I would be if Asia Durr for instance was not brought back. The 2021 draft pick won’t be cut, but could be traded.
2021 1st round draft pick
Kylee Shook has impressed with her rapid improvement on defense as the season as gone on. Her shooting has not translated yet, but her shot does not look broken and I expect it to improve. Odom has the highest variance of players. If she does not improve her shooting, nor improve her handle, she may struggle offer much on defense. But she is so athletic and offers upside at the toughest position, big wing, to find contributors.
Willoughby and Jones have had typical up and down rookie years, but Willoughby has shot fairly well from 3. Her 2 point shooting numbers are ugly, and so that is an area to keep an eye on. Jones has done fairly well for someone forced to play out of position., playing the point guard when she is much more of a shooting guard. Jones is lowest on the list because she plays the same position as Durr and Johannes, where both Ionescue and Clarendon can play as well, and may be a victim of a numbers game.
That is twelve players right there. This list does not include either of the Liberty’s veteran free agents, Kiah Stokes or Amanda Zahui B. Stokes on an affordable contract, say in the $100,000 range, would be a decent fit if an international player does not come over. She is a reasonable starting center who can soak up minutes.
Zahui B is the better player, but may be out of the Liberty’s price range. She is more solid starter than top 2 player on a good team, but bigs who can shoot and defend like she can are hard to come by (Dream article), and she may be in line for more money than it makes sense for the Liberty to pay her.
Han Xu was on the Liberty in 2019. The 6’9” 20 year old from China is so young and has time to develop into a good player, but the Liberty should see if she is willing to stay abroad to continue to develop her game and wait to come over until she’s a bit older and stronger.
The Liberty have 5 games remaining this year. This is the time to be watching how Paris Kea and Joyner Holmes look, as 2 young players on the outside looking in. At the moment, Paris Kea is making a case for a place in the WNBA with decent shooting, particularly off the dribble, and helping stabilize the point guard position for the Liberty. Joyner Holmes has work to do. She is currently sporting a brutal 28% eFG, which does not inspire confidence in her place on the Liberty next year, or frankly in the league.
The Liberty have shown they are willing to make trades, and so it will be interesting to see with a high draft pick in this upcoming draft, possibly #1, whether the team holds onto the pick or looks to make a move to get a youngish star who can grow with Ionescu.
Edited because I forgot about Stephanie Talbot. The Liberty got her in a draft day trade. I am leaning against her being on the team, but the Liberty might keep her as they do need players who can actually shoot in their 5 out offense. If she even comes over from Australia.